Comments on: Back from the dead…courtesy of Altos Research http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html Commentary on the real estate market of the San Francisco Bay Area Sat, 13 Mar 2010 18:45:15 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: The XBroker Mortgage Real Estate Marketing Technology » Mortgage 2.0 SEO and Mash-Up Strategies http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-150359 The XBroker Mortgage Real Estate Marketing Technology » Mortgage 2.0 SEO and Mash-Up Strategies Mon, 13 Jul 2009 22:34:56 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-150359 [...] that leads to, Kevin at 3 Oceans for a further dissection of one of Mikes posts about the similar trending of the NASDAQ compared to [...] [...] that leads to, Kevin at 3 Oceans for a further dissection of one of Mikes posts about the similar trending of the NASDAQ compared to [...]

]]> By: 3 Oceans re-finds its bearings http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-18821 3 Oceans re-finds its bearings Fri, 19 Jan 2007 03:10:20 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-18821 [...] Last time I went AWOL for a week, I blamed it on the Martian Death Flu.  This time, fortunately, it was because I was busy finding another warehouse for all the ramen.  At any rate, I’m back… [...] [...] Last time I went AWOL for a week, I blamed it on the Martian Death Flu.  This time, fortunately, it was because I was busy finding another warehouse for all the ramen.  At any rate, I’m back… [...]

]]> By: The San Diego Home Blog » Blog Archive » The World According to Kris - 2006 in Review http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-16237 The San Diego Home Blog » Blog Archive » The World According to Kris - 2006 in Review Mon, 01 Jan 2007 18:43:10 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-16237 [...] Inman News reports that Southern California home sales are down for the 11th straight month, which is the weakest pace in a decade. I get the Martian Death Flu, and now regret not having trademarked the name, as everyone seems to have it. Greg Swann asks me to join the Bloodhound Blog as a contributor, and I’m just a girl who can’t say “no”. [...] [...] Inman News reports that Southern California home sales are down for the 11th straight month, which is the weakest pace in a decade. I get the Martian Death Flu, and now regret not having trademarked the name, as everyone seems to have it. Greg Swann asks me to join the Bloodhound Blog as a contributor, and I’m just a girl who can’t say “no”. [...]

]]> By: Just what exactly does the Lesotho Loti have to do with Palo Alto median prices? at Three Oceans Real Estate http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-728 Just what exactly does the Lesotho Loti have to do with Palo Alto median prices? at Three Oceans Real Estate Wed, 06 Dec 2006 00:39:45 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-728 [...] Pat Kitano notes with his usual insight that spontaneity is both the joy and bane of blogging.  In a rush of post-Martian Flu exuberance, I showed what looked to be a pretty neat correlation between the NASDAQ and Palo Alto median home prices.  Alas, the spontaneity of that moment led me to not dig quite deep enough… [...] [...] Pat Kitano notes with his usual insight that spontaneity is both the joy and bane of blogging.  In a rush of post-Martian Flu exuberance, I showed what looked to be a pretty neat correlation between the NASDAQ and Palo Alto median home prices.  Alas, the spontaneity of that moment led me to not dig quite deep enough… [...]

]]> By: A leisurely ride through the Carnival at Three Oceans Real Estate http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-712 A leisurely ride through the Carnival at Three Oceans Real Estate Tue, 05 Dec 2006 05:45:07 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-712 [...] My Resurrection Post, in which I thank the good folks at Altos Research for playing a role in my recovery from the Martian Death Flu and then return the favor by extending their analysis on the NASDAQ vs. Palo Alto home prices. [...] [...] My Resurrection Post, in which I thank the good folks at Altos Research for playing a role in my recovery from the Martian Death Flu and then return the favor by extending their analysis on the NASDAQ vs. Palo Alto home prices. [...]

]]> By: Kevin Boer, Three Oceans Real Estate http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-655 Kevin Boer, Three Oceans Real Estate Sat, 02 Dec 2006 06:39:05 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-655 Athol, you're absolutely right. It's at best a general trend; I certainly wouldn't recommend for or against buying a particular property in Palo Alto on the basis of this analysis! Athol, you’re absolutely right. It’s at best a general trend; I certainly wouldn’t recommend for or against buying a particular property in Palo Alto on the basis of this analysis!

]]> By: Kevin Boer, Three Oceans Real Estate http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-654 Kevin Boer, Three Oceans Real Estate Sat, 02 Dec 2006 05:40:52 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-654 Greg, there may be a non-linear regression that sheds more light, but a simple linear regression of median home prices vs. NASDAQ yields very low R^2 values. Medians vs. NASDAQ : R^2 = .01 Medians vs. NASDAQ 3 months lagged: R^2 = .04 Medians vs. NASDAQ 6 months lagged: R^2 = .08 Any suggestions on some non-linear regressions to try? Perhaps on the natural log? Greg, there may be a non-linear regression that sheds more light, but a simple linear regression of median home prices vs. NASDAQ yields very low R^2 values.

Medians vs. NASDAQ : R^2 = .01
Medians vs. NASDAQ 3 months lagged: R^2 = .04
Medians vs. NASDAQ 6 months lagged: R^2 = .08

Any suggestions on some non-linear regressions to try? Perhaps on the natural log?

]]> By: Kevin Boer, Three Oceans Real Estate http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-653 Kevin Boer, Three Oceans Real Estate Sat, 02 Dec 2006 05:23:56 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-653 Greg, I'll give it a go, but I have to confess I'm pretty skeptical. If a regression formula like that existed, somebody would have already discovered it and made a fortune. The real estate market is efficient enough to take care of that. Greg,

I’ll give it a go, but I have to confess I’m pretty skeptical. If a regression formula like that existed, somebody would have already discovered it and made a fortune. The real estate market is efficient enough to take care of that.

]]> By: Greg Coladonato http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-651 Greg Coladonato Sat, 02 Dec 2006 02:27:06 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-651 Hey Kevin, as always, a great insightful post. BTW, I disagree that there is no neat, regession based formula for predicting home prices. In fact, I suggest you run a regression of PA medians against 3-month and 6-month lagged NASDAQ values and allow for the general uptrend in home prices. You will get predictions for future medians -- whose accuracy you can test and publish on your blog! :) Hey Kevin, as always, a great insightful post.

BTW, I disagree that there is no neat, regession based formula for predicting home prices. In fact, I suggest you run a regression of PA medians against 3-month and 6-month lagged NASDAQ values and allow for the general uptrend in home prices. You will get predictions for future medians — whose accuracy you can test and publish on your blog! :)

]]> By: The XBroker » Blog Archive » More X-Rated Musings…. http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-648 The XBroker » Blog Archive » More X-Rated Musings…. Fri, 01 Dec 2006 21:37:41 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-648 [...] And that leads to, Kevin at 3 Oceans for a further dissection of one of Mikes posts about the similar trending of the NASDAQ compared to Palo Alto real estate prices. Fascinating! [...] [...] And that leads to, Kevin at 3 Oceans for a further dissection of one of Mikes posts about the similar trending of the NASDAQ compared to Palo Alto real estate prices. Fascinating! [...]

]]> By: JeffX http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-647 JeffX Fri, 01 Dec 2006 20:44:11 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-647 Your content is fantastic Kevin...Great Mash-up... Have you seen any other markets via Mikes info that may trend similarly to (other) major indexes? Fascinating data...people have been trying to tie in the stock market to the real estate markets empirical data for years... Although theres no practical regression formula, the RE markets have innately 'slower' capital velocities, it'll be interesting to watch this going forward.... Your content is fantastic Kevin…Great Mash-up…
Have you seen any other markets via Mikes info that may trend similarly to (other) major indexes? Fascinating data…people have been trying to tie in the stock market to the real estate markets empirical data for years…
Although theres no practical regression formula, the RE markets have innately ’slower’ capital velocities, it’ll be interesting to watch this going forward….

]]> By: Altos Research Real Estate Insights http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-646 Altos Research Real Estate Insights Fri, 01 Dec 2006 20:23:25 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-646 <strong>Palo Alto Real Estate Projections? Watch the NASDAQ...</strong> It's amazing the insights customer conversations drive. I've had more than one inquiry lately about the price swings we're recording in places like Palo Alto. Why are prices climbing when all the headlines declare the bubble exploding? Here, loyal... Palo Alto Real Estate Projections? Watch the NASDAQ…

It’s amazing the insights customer conversations drive. I’ve had more than one inquiry lately about the price swings we’re recording in places like Palo Alto. Why are prices climbing when all the headlines declare the bubble exploding? Here, loyal…

]]> By: Athol Kay http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html/comment-page-1#comment-644 Athol Kay Fri, 01 Dec 2006 18:35:54 +0000 http://3oceansrealestate.com/blog/back-from-the-deadcourtesy-of-altos-research.html#comment-644 Well crap, if the Martian Death Flu could only last a full Carnival cycle..... It's very convincing 1997-2003. The last two years though it seems a little hazier though. Well crap, if the Martian Death Flu could only last a full Carnival cycle…..

It’s very convincing 1997-2003. The last two years though it seems a little hazier though.

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