SubscribeTax Credit Extended, Markets Further Stabilizing and Real Estate Ideal Hedge
November 11, 2009
Tax Credit and Conforming/FHA Loan Limit Extended
Made official on Friday, the tax credit for home purchases was extended through July 1, 2010 and the important details are exactly as they were in my post on Friday the 30th of October, which was summarized as follows:
· Effective on binding real estate contracts from December 1, 2009 through April 30, 2010, The tax credit would be $8,000 for first time home buyers and $6,500 for move-up buyers who have owned their current home for at least five years
· The tax credit expires on April 30, 2010; however, if a binding contract is reached by April 30, 2010, buyers have an additional 60 days to close the deal and still be eligible for the tax credit
· For purchases made in 2010, taxpayers would be able to claim the credit on their 2009 income tax return
· The income limits for both first time home buyers and move-up buyers would be $125,000 for single return and $225,000 joint return.
· Cost of the home may not exceed $800,000 to be eligible.
Remember that a tax credit has about THREE TIMES the impact of a tax deduction, which allows someone earning $125,000 per year to be taxed on about $102,000*. And since other items like interest and property taxes are also deductible*, that same individual may be looking at less than half of their earnings being fully taxable..!*
Add the above news to the fact HUD also extended the conforming loan limit of $729,750 in the Bay Area to December 31, 2010, and you have a “perfect storm” for every qualified first-time buyer in the Bay Area.
S&P Case-Shiller Confirming Further Improvement of Housing Prices
Released last week, the S&P Case-Shiller index confirms that housing prices continue to improve, especially in areas like San Francisco where the index moved another 2.8% in August to 132.47. This marks the seventh straight month of improvement.
Zillow also reported that their index reflected further stabilization for the third quarter, with over 26% of the metropolitan statistical areas showing signs of improvement.
Real Estate as an Ideal Hedge to Both the “W” Concern and Inflation
You may recall from my last post that we are seeing far more application activity for purchases in the $1mm+ range, especially the $1.5mm to $4mm range. These applications have been coming from our more financially-minded clients, as they not only see tremendous opportunity to obtain a more valuable home, but they are very concerned about a “W”-shaped economic recovery and subsequent inflation. As such, obtaining an upgraded home for less, cheap financing and hedging against inflation make buying a larger home an ideal move. All things being relative, the reality is that the S&P 500 currently has a rather high price-to-earnings ratio at about 19.52 versus the historical average of 15.7. As such, if we were in average economic circumstances, it’s arguable that the stock market is overvalued by about 25%. Given the fact that our current economy is FAR from being in average condition, it’s anyone’s guess just how overvalued the stock market is. All I know is that my savviest, financially-minded clients think that the stock market is due a correction and that real estate is a great asset to have as a hedge against both a market correction and inevitable inflation.
Fannie’s New Program: Deed for Lease
Announced on November 5, Fannie Mae is helping those qualified applicants to essentially sell and lease back their current home. This program is also applicable to investment-property owners who are facing foreclosure and wish to deed the property over to the lender and allow the renters to continue renting at market levels.
Rates and Activity
- Rates continue to run as low as 3.75%, depending on a number of different factors, with the conforming 30-year at just under 5% and the jumbo 30-year at about 4.75%
- 71% of our transactions last month were purchases, and the average loan was in the $500k range.
- As mentioned above, we’re seeing a heavy trend in purchase applications for the move-up market, but inventory is turning off a majority of those buyers
- We closed a deal in TWO weeks, but we still recommend a 30-day closing period
- If you or someone you know prefers to pay cash for a purchase, then finance that purchase within 90 days to protect valuable tax advantages, we can help, as we have programs that DO NOT require 6 months seasoning and pricing is based on purchase money, NOT a cash-out refinance
* Does not constitute tax advice. Please seek any qualified tax professional for proper guidance.
Buydowns and the Bottom
March 31, 2009
If you were in the market to buy a $2,000,000 home home in the Bay Area, would it make a differnce to you if the monthly investment was less than $5,000 with a 30% down payment? And I’m not just talking about the mortgage payment, I am talking about complete, tax adjusted cash flow including a 4.25% 30-year mortgage fixed for 10 years, property taxes and homeowners insurance. Sound too good to be true? It’s not. And yes it beats market rental rates by thousands.
Interest-rate buydowns are one of the most effective methods for both buyers and seller to obtain what they want, which of course is value. For the sellers, buying down an interest rate can have up to 8X the power over a price reduction, depending on the cost to buy the rate down. For buyers, a lower rate means higher qualification and bragging rights of having the lowest mortgage rate on the planet. In the example above:
- If the buyer was qualified up to $1.8mm at 5.5%, they are now qualified at $2mm at 4.25%
- The seller only needs to invest four points or $56,000 to move the buyer $200,000; thus a $56,000 investment saves the seller about $144,000, which is therefore about FOUR TIMES more effective than reducing price
I use the example above since I have been receiving a tremendous amount of inquiries about what’s happening at the higher end, which are those homes selling at $1.5mm+, and whether creative financing has been more common than not. What we’re seeing is that creative financing, like interest rate buydowns and seller financing, are definitely more common at all price points. But what’s been rather fascinating to watch is that many sellers are becoming less inclined to reduce price, despite the fact that prices are off by between 7% to 17%, depending on which city the property i located. Yet, sellers have been very open to concessions that help them keep their price, despite the net proceeds being reduced. One of the reasons for this, in my opinion, is the fact that buying activity has skyrocketed on the last few weeks, which is obviously encoraging to sellers.
So what’s drivng the buying activity? Well, for starters, it seems like many buyers properly sensed that we’ve hit the proverbial “bottom” of the real estate market, which was recently confirmed ed by the exisitng home sales figures that came out last week. That’s right, not only are sales of both exisiting and new homes up significantly (4.7% and 5.1% respectively), the US median price and average price were both up in February over January. Add this data to the fact that interest rates have set a new low record, plus further validation from one of most respected economic forecasting sources avalable, the UCLA forecast, that 2010 will be a year of recovery, and it becomes clearer and clearer that there couldn’t be a greater opprtunity to buy real estate.
Glug, Glug, Glug… [Sound of Orange Oil] … Aaaaaargh! … [Sound of Termites Dying]
January 23, 2008
Fellow 3 Oceans contributor and South Bay Keller Williams Realtor Bart Marchioni forwarded me a rather entertaining newsletter from National Building Inspectors. “Entertaining” and “Building Inspectors” aren’t normally found together…but — perhaps due to my macabre sense of humor — I couldn’t help laughing at this imagery…
Imagine a colony of termites infesting your home <nibble nibble nibble>. Now imagine pouring orange juice on them. <glug glug glug>. Termites start drinking <slurp slurp slurp>. Termites start dying. <aaaaaaargh! aaaaaargh! aaaaaargh!>
Here’s what it might look like:
Ok, actually, the orange substance isn’t orange juice, but rather orange oil, or Limolene, a “terpene hydrocarbon colorless liquid with an extremely strong smell of oranges.”
And NBI is a reputable firm, so no, they wouldn’t recommend dousing your home with OJ in hopes of killing your termite housemates.
According to the NBI newsletter, they’ve been asked by many people about whether orange oil is effective at killing termites. A summary of their opinion:
- Yes, termites will be killed on contact by orange oil. (Of course, they would also be killed on contact with my foot!) Getting termites to come in contact with said orange oil, however, would be nigh impossible in the hidden wooden structures of the home — ie. in the vast majority of where you would find termites. A handy little diagram from NBI:
- Yes, orange oil will “defy gravity” — ie soak in all directions, including upwards — but, for that matter, so does water. The key problem is that orange oil apparently biodegrades after only 4 days.
The personal opinion of the newsletter’s author is that NBI “would never certify a home as being ‘free and clear’ of a drywood infestation that was treated with orange oil.”
Disclaimer: I am not a termite inspector. More importantly, I am not your termite inspector. If you have termite issues, or questions about termites, please ask your friendly professional termite inspector. Above all, do not pour orange juice over your home in an attempt to kill your termite housemates. ‘Nuff said.
