Market prediction update

September 18, 2006

A few weeks ago I started a prediction market at Inklingmarkets.com to see what the general public thought would happen to median real estate prices in nearby towns during the month of September. It’s a “good news/bad news” sort of thing right now.

The bad news is…it’s a thin market. Not many people are trading yet, so the predictions could be way off.
The good news is…it’s a thin market. Not many people are trading yet, so there’s still lots of (fake Inkling!) money to be made.
Here’s what the prediction market currently says median prices will be at the end of September in these cities (keep in mind the X $10,000 scale):

And here’s what the current real market medians are, as of 9/18/06, with just under two weeks of activity remaining in this month.

Menlo Park predictions seem to be pretty much in line with market reality right now — the prediction is currently $1,242,000 and the real market is at $1,250,000. Some other cities are pretty far off still, such as San Carlos, for which the prediction is $1,180,000 but the actual market is at only $890,000. A city with what seems a pretty low prediction is Mountain View, with a current prediction of $727,000 and actual current value of $862,000.
Without giving too much away…seems like market traders might want to start buying Mountain View and selling San Carlos!If you’re interested in trading on this market, click here; if you don’t already have an Inklingmarkets account you’ll have to create one.

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Written by Kevin · Filed Under Prediction markets, Real estate, Real estate 2.0, Real estate data 

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