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Mortgage Mania 19 - The Jumbo Strikes Back

Amid all the celebration and hullabaloo associated with the recent drop in conforming interest rates as a result of the Treasury Department taking over management of GSE’s Fannie May and Freddie Mac, there has been scant analysis of the elephant in the room, namely Jumbo (aka non-conforming) loans that are part and parcel of home purchasing here in Silicon Valley.

The GSEs hold or have securitized nearly half — roughly $5 trillion — of all mortgages in the U.S., and in the current environment with private lender constraints, they account for the vast majority of all new mortgages in California.

 This bailout (oops, did I say bailout?) removes much of the risk to lenders of writing mortgages for under $729,000 locally, decreasing to $649,000 next year, because they can resell these loans to the government backed and now managed GSE’s.

But what about loans over $729,000? Well, Wall Street and the secondary market will still be willing to buy those that are considered low risk (excellent credit score, low loan-to-value ratio, verifiable income), but they will demand a risk premium for those loans, meaning that rates are likely to go up, taking us back to the bifurcated market for rates that we have seen in previous years.

 On his way to the SILVAR Golf Tournament yesterday, co-contributor and local mortgage banking hotshot Eric Trailer of Absolute Mortgage Bank in Palo Alto gave this quick analysis of where he sees rates going (paraphrased here):

If you know you can sell off a loan to a government backed agency, you have very low risk, so you demand a low interest rate. However, as risk increases you will demand a greater “risk premium” to hedge against not being able to sell that loan, or the buyer defaulting on that loan. Right now we are seeing investors who are willing to lend the 20% to take a buyer from a 20% down, 80% loan to a 100% loan, but at 15% with 5 or 6 points. That’s expensive money, which is why it is dubbed “hard money”, but it offsets the risk to the lender.

 Eric thinks we could see Jumbo rates heading to the 8 - 9% region, which is still lower than in the 80’s, but the difference between a 6% loan and a 9% loan on $1,000,000 is $2500 a month just in interest.

 Let’s do some math. If you have an 80% mortgage on a median priced home in Palo Alto ($1,921,214, source Altos Research). That is a mortgage of $1,536,971, and payments increasing from $7685 @ 6% to $11,527 @ 9%. That’s a lot of $4.25 a gallon gas!

 So, if you are planning on buying a new home and you need to borrow more than $729,000 you may want to get out there looking sooner rather than later.

 To learn more about the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and what it means to your home purchase, check out a new video featuring California Association of Realtors Executive Vice President Joel Singer at http://www.car.org/newsstand/video-js-gse. In “Fannie and Freddie: Why They Matter to You,” Joel explains the often confusing but critical role Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play in the housing market in clear and concise terms.

Thanks for reading . . .

Tags: 2008 loan limits, 2009 interest rates, 4---mortgage-mania, bailout, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, interest rates, Jumbo Loans, mortgage bailout, treasury

Mortgage Mania 18 - Can You Say Taxpayer Bailout?

What The Government Seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Means To You

Unless you have been hiding under a rock the past couple of days, you couldn’t miss the announcement that the U.S. Department of the Treasury has placed government backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into a conservatorship. Under the terms of the deal, the federal government is authorized to take up to an 80 percent stake in the companies, and, as part of its duties under the conservatorship, will review both Fannie’s and Freddie’s financial condition quarterly, as well as inject money into the operations as needed. 
Tommy Fehrenbach of Stern Mortgage in Palo Alto had this to say about the Treasury Department’s move.

“To promote market stability, the companies will be allowed to buy more mortgages through the end of 2009. However, starting in 2010 the number of mortgages they own will gradually be reduced at a rate of 10% per year, eventually stabilizing at about $250 billion.”

 As part of this weekend’s action, both CEOs were relieved of their duties and Herbert Allison, former Merrill Lynch vice chairman, and David Moffett, former U.S. Bancorp CFO, were selected to lead Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively.

The markets cheered the move with the NYSE and NASDAQ rallying on the news, and mortgages rates for conforming loans (under $650,000 in 2009) fell almost half a point.

 All great news, mortgage rates fall, and the housing slump is averted, right? Not so fast there partner . . .

In a statement released today by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), concern over the long-term impact of the move was expressed with the following cautionary forecast:

“Without an institutionalized mortgage-backed securities market, mortgage capital eventually will be less predictable and more expensive, and adjustable-rate mortgages could become the standard loan for home buyers, as could higher down payment requirements. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage as we know it will no longer be readily available for most home buyers and may effectively disappear. The result could be a dramatic decline in homeownership rates in California and across the nation.”

C.A.R. is concerned that the Treasury, and Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s new CEOs, will overreact and change the mission and role of the GSEs. Wall Street and investors are understandably reluctant to buy mortgage backed securities (MBS) that are not either originated from or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.”

I added the underlining for emphasis because what nobody is talking about is JUMBO loans. Those mortgages above $729,000 (over $650,000 in 2009) that are part and parcel of almost ALL sales of single family homes here in Silicon Valley (the median home price in Palo Alto this week is: $1,921,214, courtesy of Altos Research).

In summary, while this is a good move for conforming loans, and the majority of potential homebuyers across the country, high-cost areas like Silicon Valley may once again be left out in the cold.

Stay tuned for our next edition of Mortgage Mania - The Jumbo Strikes Back

Thanks for reading . . .

 

Tags: bailout, California Association of Realtors, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, housing market, housing market turnaround, Mortgage, Palo alto housing market, silicon valley economy, silicon valley real estate

Relief Ahead For Troubled Areas of the Housing Market? If This Law Passes, Your $750K Home Could Cost You $500 Less Per Month

Several changes are afoot that may give some breathing room to the troubled parts of the housing market — which includes much of the country, even some areas here in the Peninsula. The Fed’s surprise 75-basis point rate drop a few days ago may lead to lower mortgage rates, and some of those with soon-to-reset adjustable rate mortgages may also be breathing easier.

The news today is that the House of Representatives has signed off on at least a temporary increase in the conforming loan limit, from its current level of $417,000 (more than enough for much of the country, almost irrelevant here) to $625,000, and perhaps as high as $700,000 in high-cost states. Now if the Senate and W. sign off on it, we could have ourselves a deal!

Currently, conforming loans (those which are guaranteed and resold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) are limited to $417,000 in most states, but are about 50% higher in “high-cost” states like Hawaii and Alaska. By some twisted government logic, California is not included as a “high-cost” state.

What impact would raising the limit from $417,000 to $625,000 have on our local market? As a non-mortgage professional, here’s my take on it… (I’m hoping that a local mortgage expert or two may chime in here.)

First, if you’re buying a $1.5M home and putting $300K down — ie you’re borrowing $1.2M — nothing would change for you. Since you’re borrowing more than the limit, your loan can’t and won’t be resold and guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie, and the risk premium for this has increased dramatically over the last year. A quick check over at bankrate.com shows a full 1.16% price difference between a conforming 30-year mortgage at 5.25% and a jumbo 30-year mortgage at 6.41%. Sorry, you’re stuck in the 6.41% camp.

However, if you’re buying a less expensive home — or putting down a lot more money — this could help dramatically. Say you’re buying a $750,000 home and you’re planning on putting $125,000 down — ie you’re getting a $625,000 loan.

Currently, that’s above the conforming loan limit, so with today’s rates you’d be paying (click click click on my calculator) $3914 per month. If the bill passes, you could get that same $625,000 loan for for 5.25% (click click click) or $3451 per month. That’s a handy pre-tax savings of a tad over $500/month, hardly chump change.

The lesson? If this bill passes, and the numbers work out such that the home you’ve been eying would require a loan between $417,000 and $625,000, here’s what you need to do:

• Scramble, beg, borrow, steal — do whatever you need to do in order to get enough of a downpayment to bring your loan in under $625,000.
• Work with your mortgage person to get a big enough second mortgage so that your first comes in under $625,000

Further coverage:

• Brian Brady notes that some political horse-trading may be ongoing as part of the negotiations. In particular, President Bush may have dropped his insistence on increases in loan limits being tied greater regulatory oversight.
• The Front Steps blog posits that this will cause a rush of demand for appropriately priced properties in San Francisco, leading to a good year for real estate.
• A commenter at Socketsite notes the downside of this move: Hooray! Privatize profits, then socialize the losses…Now all the troubled lenders can refinance this toxic garbage and put it into Fannie/Freddie’s lap (oh, and FHA too.)…I’m saving my $300 tax rebate (that I don’t qualify for) so that I can pay my share of the bailout.
• The OFHEO (government body charged with oversight of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) released a hefty 19-page position paper earlier this month with some fascinating statistics. Of particular note:
  Nearly 50% — half — of all jumbo loans come from California.

  Secondly, this graph, from the same OFHEO report, clearly shows the havoc the whole mortgage fiasco has caused to the Jumbo loan market:  the difference in interest rates between conforming and Jumbo loans more than quadrupled in 2007.  Here’s how to read this graph:  In January 2007, the interest rate difference between conforming and Jumbo loans was a scant 20 basis points; a confirming loan product at, say 6%, would have a comparable Jumbo product at 6.2%; by the end of 2007, that difference had increased to 80 basis points, so a conforming product at 6% would have a corresponding Jumbo product at 6.8%.

  That’s real money, folks!

  

Caveat: I am not a mortgage broker or banker. In particular, I am not your mortgage broker or banker. The above represents my layman’s understanding of the issue. Don’t make any kind of home purchasing decision based solely on the above. Talk to your mortgage professional. ‘Nuff said.

Tags: Conforming Loans, Consumer, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Mortgages, Real estate

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