SubscribeTax Credit Extended, Markets Further Stabilizing and Real Estate Ideal Hedge
November 11, 2009
Tax Credit and Conforming/FHA Loan Limit Extended
Made official on Friday, the tax credit for home purchases was extended through July 1, 2010 and the important details are exactly as they were in my post on Friday the 30th of October, which was summarized as follows:
· Effective on binding real estate contracts from December 1, 2009 through April 30, 2010, The tax credit would be $8,000 for first time home buyers and $6,500 for move-up buyers who have owned their current home for at least five years
· The tax credit expires on April 30, 2010; however, if a binding contract is reached by April 30, 2010, buyers have an additional 60 days to close the deal and still be eligible for the tax credit
· For purchases made in 2010, taxpayers would be able to claim the credit on their 2009 income tax return
· The income limits for both first time home buyers and move-up buyers would be $125,000 for single return and $225,000 joint return.
· Cost of the home may not exceed $800,000 to be eligible.
Remember that a tax credit has about THREE TIMES the impact of a tax deduction, which allows someone earning $125,000 per year to be taxed on about $102,000*. And since other items like interest and property taxes are also deductible*, that same individual may be looking at less than half of their earnings being fully taxable..!*
Add the above news to the fact HUD also extended the conforming loan limit of $729,750 in the Bay Area to December 31, 2010, and you have a “perfect storm” for every qualified first-time buyer in the Bay Area.
S&P Case-Shiller Confirming Further Improvement of Housing Prices
Released last week, the S&P Case-Shiller index confirms that housing prices continue to improve, especially in areas like San Francisco where the index moved another 2.8% in August to 132.47. This marks the seventh straight month of improvement.
Zillow also reported that their index reflected further stabilization for the third quarter, with over 26% of the metropolitan statistical areas showing signs of improvement.
Real Estate as an Ideal Hedge to Both the “W” Concern and Inflation
You may recall from my last post that we are seeing far more application activity for purchases in the $1mm+ range, especially the $1.5mm to $4mm range. These applications have been coming from our more financially-minded clients, as they not only see tremendous opportunity to obtain a more valuable home, but they are very concerned about a “W”-shaped economic recovery and subsequent inflation. As such, obtaining an upgraded home for less, cheap financing and hedging against inflation make buying a larger home an ideal move. All things being relative, the reality is that the S&P 500 currently has a rather high price-to-earnings ratio at about 19.52 versus the historical average of 15.7. As such, if we were in average economic circumstances, it’s arguable that the stock market is overvalued by about 25%. Given the fact that our current economy is FAR from being in average condition, it’s anyone’s guess just how overvalued the stock market is. All I know is that my savviest, financially-minded clients think that the stock market is due a correction and that real estate is a great asset to have as a hedge against both a market correction and inevitable inflation.
Fannie’s New Program: Deed for Lease
Announced on November 5, Fannie Mae is helping those qualified applicants to essentially sell and lease back their current home. This program is also applicable to investment-property owners who are facing foreclosure and wish to deed the property over to the lender and allow the renters to continue renting at market levels.
Rates and Activity
- Rates continue to run as low as 3.75%, depending on a number of different factors, with the conforming 30-year at just under 5% and the jumbo 30-year at about 4.75%
- 71% of our transactions last month were purchases, and the average loan was in the $500k range.
- As mentioned above, we’re seeing a heavy trend in purchase applications for the move-up market, but inventory is turning off a majority of those buyers
- We closed a deal in TWO weeks, but we still recommend a 30-day closing period
- If you or someone you know prefers to pay cash for a purchase, then finance that purchase within 90 days to protect valuable tax advantages, we can help, as we have programs that DO NOT require 6 months seasoning and pricing is based on purchase money, NOT a cash-out refinance
* Does not constitute tax advice. Please seek any qualified tax professional for proper guidance.
Tales From the Front – The World of Palo Alto Area Real Estate 10/16/09
October 16, 2009
Today was re-tour day in Palo Alto. When the price of a home is reduced, or the listing agent is trying to generate some interest in a stale listing, they “re-tour” it, or have it on broker’s tour again. Today we visited three great properties that are looking for new owners and are on tour following price reductions.
First up was a Crescent Park contemporary at 1012 Forest Avenue, listed by Alan Dunckel and Derk Brill of Alain Pinel Realtors in Palo Alto. Since there isn’t an actual Alain Pinel at that office, if you ask for him, you will be connected to Alan Dunckel, who is a nice guy and a good agent and his name is close enough. They have just reduced the price on this home from $2,395,000 to $2,195,000. Not bad for a 4 year old home in that neighborhood. It will have an open house on Saturday and Sunday from 1:30 to 4:30.
Next we moved a little South to 2145 Emerson Street in equally shi-shi Old Palo Alto. This newer traditional home is listed by Lisa Liu of Alain Pinel Realtors for $2,095,000, down from $2,295,000. At 2248sf on a 5000sf lot, it’s a cozy home, with great details, and great natural lighting. Open Sunday from 1:30 to 4:30.
Saving the best for last is my Intero colleague David Troyer’s listing at 75 Coronado Avenue in Los Altos. This new home is 6721 square feet on two levels on a 14233sf lot. Using modern Craftsman architecture and high ceilings, even the basement feels open and spacious, and it has great finishes and details throughout. Normally shown by appointment only, I’ll be there this Sunday from 1:30 to 4:30. Please stop by!
If you would like more information on any of these or other homes for sale in the area, send me an email, or call me at 650-450-0450.
Have a great weekend!
Tales From The Front – My world in real estate, October 9, 2009
October 9, 2009
I’m going back to some of our original content here on 3Oceans and providing some commentary on selected homes I saw today on Broker’s Tour that are worthy of mention to me. Thanks to JT for driving today, and Steve for navigational assistance.
I dragged my Los Altos compatriots to Palo Alto today to see a couple of fine homes from the 1930’s. Being an old house nut, 320 Kellogg Avenue, listed by Tim Trailer of Coldwell Banker in Palo Alto really captured my attention with its period details, classy kitchen remodel and the big soaking tub in the master suite. Set on nearly half an acre of Old Palo Alto, this fine property will only set you back $9,750,000.
Moving downmarket to 2050 Waverly Avenue, listed by Bonnie Bjorn of Coldwell Banker in Menlo Park is this beautifully restored Dutch Colonial, offered with the reduced price of $4,995,000. It’s less house and less land than Kellogg, but you don’t have the train noise, and I actually like the neighborhood better. Plus the almost $5million in change will get you a nice little place overlooking the fairway at Pebble Beach, or a small winery in Sonoma . . .
The highlight for me today was this newer Palo Alto Hills estate, listed by Grace Wu of Alain Pinel for $4,299,000. Almost two acres of land, sweeping views of the Hills, and a 3 car garage (must have!) make this a winner. No open houses, but I can set up a showing if you are interested.
Finally, a big shout out to David Chung of Alain Pinel for rocking his new Audi R8 on broker’s tour today! I think he is the new winner in the sexy Palo Alto Realtor Car competition. Eat your heart out Ken!
If you would like to see any of the homes I wrote about today, let me know.
Thanks for reading . . .
Why Can’t The Industry Response Effectively to Zillow? For the Same Reason Your Local PTA Ain’t Gonna Be Fielding a World-class Baseball Team Any Time Soon!
April 8, 2007
Michael Wurzer, the author of the well-written, provocative, up-and-coming FlexMLS blog, offers an MLS software provider's perspective on the recent Zillow developments, which from his point of view are yawn-inducing. Given that he first heard the news in the middle of the night after having been woken up by a puppy, he's probably grateful.
Michael raises the following challenge: Now is the time for brokers, agents, and MLS organizations to realize and increase the value of the MLS data repository.
I couldn't agree more. The unfortunate thing is…it simply ain't gonna happen. Why? There are many reasons, not the least of which is organizational: Realtor and MLS boards are designed with certain goals in mind, none of which have anything to do with technological innovation.
That's not necessarily a bad thing, mind you, since excelling in technological innovation is not a prerequisite for excelling in the real raison d’être for Realtor and MLS boards, namely fostering cooperation amongst otherwise fiercely competing brokerages and Realtors. It really is coopetition in its purest form.
Think about it. In our local market, the three biggest brokerages are Alain Pinel, Coldwell Banker, and Intero Real Estate. The rivalry between these three companies, and between their respective agents, is fierce and unrelenting. A new listing for Alain Pinel often takes place at the expense of the other two, since anybody interviewing multiple agents is likely to pick one from each company. And yet, despite this intense competition, agents from any company — not just the big three — regularly and gladly show all the listings on the market, without regard to the listing broker. Similarly, listing agents regularly and gladly listen to all the offers that other agents bring in, no matter which brokerage they come from.
It really is quite impressive, and the structures behind this are the much-maligned Realtor and MLS boards. They create and enforce rules that enhance cooperation amongst competitors. They have arbitration committees for settling disputes. They have codes of conduct that prohibit poaching another Realtor's clients. They require all members to upload new listings within 48 hours.
The big price they pay for enabling this coopetition, however, is that these boards tend to be consensus-driven (or nearly so), slow-moving, plodding, and methodical. While this is the only way to get sworn business enemies to agree on anything, it's a terrible way of fostering innovation.
Want to put sold listings up on the MLS? Hell, no! If one key player puts his foot down, perhaps threatening to remove his listings from the MLS, then that ain't gonna happen.
Let's talk about uploading the listings to Trulia, Google, or Zillow? Absolutely not! (Unless you're the Houston MLS.) All it takes is one big broker to feel threatened by this move and it simply won't happen until there's absolutely no choice.
Ok, then, let's discuss creating a snazzy state-wide MLS to compete with these interlopers! Sure, we'll discuss it, but what we really mean is "let's set up a feasibility steering committee to investigate this and report back to the board in the Spring of 2009."
Zillow and the other 2.0 players have no such restrictions. Quite the opposite: they're designed to turn on a dime, to be responsive to competitive pressures, to be creative, to be laser-beam focussed on consumers. That's why they're so good at constantly turning out great products: they're designed from the ground up to do precisely that.
Think of the Realtor and MLS boards as being akin to your local PTA. The PTA is set up to do extremely well at certain things: raising money for a school, getting parents to volunteer in the classrooms, fostering interaction between parents and teachers.
But would you choose a PTA-type organizational structure to field a team of world-class baseball players? No way! To do that, you'd need to be much more business-oriented. You'd have to be willing to take chances, to fire players that weren't doing well, and to be a hard-nosed negotiator. That's now how PTA's are set up.
The next time you get frustrated at our industry's seeming inability to respond to these competitive threats, remember that that's simply the price we pay for having an organizational structure that otherwise suits our needs quite well. Your local Realtor or MLS board ain't gonna be beating Zillow or Trulia at the technology game any time soon.
Trulia Gets More Listings and More Delightful
March 3, 2007
Hot on the heels of Trulia’s announcement that Keller Williams’ listings will soon be added to Trulia’s database, now the company can proudly boast that another giant — Realogy — is on board. Included in Realogy’s portfolio are the giants Century 21, Coldwell Banker, and ERA.
Trulia has been slowly building its relationships with brokerages around the country to get their listings on board, and has won the trust of the industry — naturally wary of online predators who take the listings, snazz them up, and then sell them back as leads — by faithfully directing traffic back to the brokerage’s sites and staying true to its promise of making money only through advertising.
Don’t know how I missed this promo when it launched on Youtube late last year, but here’s some slick advertising for the company, featuring, amongst others, Alain Pinel’s CEO Larry Knapp.
This is where things start to get interesting. While Trulia’s search experience has always been at least on par with the best real estate search engines out there, its relative dearth of inventory — compared to broker-run and MLS-run sites — has been its Achilles heel. Sure, it’s always been fun and cool to search on their site, but in the early days when their site had only 20% of the listings in an area, many would have sacrificed Trulia’s coolness for the completeness of less cool sites.When Trulia got up to 50%, the same could perhaps be said. With Keller Williams and the Realogy giants now on board — as well as the large local players, like Intero and Alain Pinel Realtors here in the Bay Area — they could well soon reach the tipping point of, say, 80%, after which the remaining stragglers will have no choice but to go on board as Trulia becomes a more popular search destination.
It’s unlikely Trulia would ever have 100% of the listings in any given area because of the “long tail” nature of listings. In our MLS catchment area, for instance, there are currently 4110 active listings, of which fully 536 are from brokerages that currently have only 1 listing. There’s simply no way Trulia can knock on the doors of all these brokerages to get those stragglers, so the company will have to rely on the “me-too” syndrome for them to join.
Today’s Palo Alto and Menlo Park Properties: A Guard Tower to Ward off Marauding Athertonians
February 16, 2007
What better way to spend a balmy, sunny, spring day than viewing the new crop of homes
to hit the market in Palo Alto? Come along for the ride as we explore the inventory, which, per our friends at Altos Research, is still tight, but improving.
First up was a stray Menlo Park property — “stray” because Menlo Park properties are normally on broker tour on Tuesdays, not Fridays — namely, 1026 Menlo Oaks in the Menlo Oaks/Flood Park neighborhood of Menlo Park. A retired fireman’s residence, this classic old 3/2 home sits on a 9000 sq ft lot, a size more commonly found south of Bay Road than north of it. The listing agent, Jeanne Wangsness of Coldwell Banker, has it listed at $1,047,000, and in this market it’s anybody’s guess what the winning bid will be, despite how close it is to the charming sounds of highway 101. Look at it this way: you’re paying $100,000 for the home, another $2000 for the quaint (but gas-burning) stove, and $945000 for the land.
From there it was on to Palo Alto and 2297 St. Francis, listed by local Coldwell Banker superstar Brendan Leary. Tragically close to highway 101 and Embarcadero — and priced accordingly at $925,000 — is a definite candidate for the cute award, with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and 1120 square feet. Detracting from its charm, however, is a somewhat unkempt back yard.
After popping by Intero Real Estate’s Lana Raltson’s listing at 290 Iris Way in Palo Alto, I mosied on over to see fellow Alain Pinel-er Arti Miglani’s listing at 3055 Stelling. Showing my softer side, I took time to coo over an adorable little 8-month baby whose mother was busy looking over the property. Listed at just under $1.2M, this 3/2 Eichler home has been well-looked after and nicely remodelled, maintaining some of the original charm. Typical of this style home, there is a partial wall separating the kitchen from the living area, but the kitchen has been redone with tasteful tiles, cabinetry, and appliances, and is well lit from both the large windows and door leading outside and the track lighting. Arti had thoughtfully provided a coffee cart service — a wonderful way to keep Realtors lingering longer at the property.
Then it was two quick stops at 3934 Nelson (Pat Miller, Alain Pinel) and 2590 Bryant (Tim Anderson, also Alain Pinel) — the latter a small home on a big yard, whose nearly-certain fate is to be torn down and built into a McMansion like the one currently being built 2 houses down.
Today’s pièce de résistance was definitely the last property I saw: 345 Lincoln Ave, a grand century-old Professorville home listed by the Carol/Rosemary/Nicole team (again — Alain Pinel!) For just under $5M, you get a 21000 sq ft lot (pretty rare in Palo Alto), an elegant 4000+ sq ft home, 6 (or more) bedrooms, two stories plus an attic — and thought I can’t speak for the listing agents, they would probably be happy to throw in a GPS so you can find your way around. The nicest touch of this property was undoubtedly the “guard tower” perched above the back of the house, extending up to a four-story house, surrounded by a wall of glass. A perfect place for a sundowner or a late afternoon nap, one imagines this tower would have been perfect for spying on those marauding Athertonians in the old days before peace broke out between the two neighboring towns.
Curious about the route I took? I didn’t think so…but here it is anyways.
