I think we will file this under: “News of the Weird”, but I was stunned to see that even Michael Jackson has been unable to escape the clutches of the expanding foreclosure crisis. Apparently, The King of Pop’s has joined the thousands of homeowners across the country who are losing their homes to foreclosure.

Apparently, Jacko owes $24.5 million on the property and the county is planned to foreclose for non-payment of back taxes. The property is scheduled to be auctioned at the courthouse steps on March 19.

Michael - Contact our resident foreclosure and short sale expert, Bart Marchioni, right away. He can help you out.

For all you readers out there, help a reclusive, aging pop star out, go buy a 25th anniversary edition of Thriller. On sale now!

For CNN’s take on the story, click here.

Thanks for reading

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This has been in the works for a while, but we’re thrilled that the Bawld Guy himself, Jeff Brown, plus his son Josh, will be gracing us with their presence next weekend.  No, he’s not coming up here for a haircut…he’ll be holding three real estate investing events.  We’re pleased to sponsor his trip up here, along with our friends at Equitas Capital.

Hint:  Jeff’s the one on the right.  Josh is on the left.

We’ll kick things off on Friday night (February 29th) from 6pm to 8pm with a light dinner/reception for Jeff and Josh.  On Saturday (March 1st) from 10am to noon and 2pm to 4pm, he’ll be giving a talk on real estate investing in general, concentrating on his thoughts for the Bay Area.

If you’d like to attend, click here to register.
Jeff was kind of to provide some information in the form of a guest post.  Those who have been reading his blog will know that there are many reasons why he recommends folks with real estate equity in California should sell or refinance and invest in other areas.

Take it away, Jeff…

How Bay Area Investors Can Safely Improve Their Portfolio’s Performance

I’m asked this question everywhere. “How can I improve my annual returns, and/or capital growth rate?” This is invariably followed with the need for them to stay local, as if the ability to drive by their property makes their investments safer.

The answer is simple - you can improve your capital growth rate by stepping back and being objective. For example, I’m based in San Diego, an area often associated with Paradise. Yet I’ve been saying for years now - get outa Dodge. Real estate investors are a curious breed. They focus like laser beams when looking for an investment, yet shoot themselves in the foot time and again by insisting on investing in their own backyard. Allow my smart aleck self to emerge here - your capital doesn’t know where it’s been invested.

As bad a place for your investment dollar as San Diego is these days, the Bay Area is even worse. If the investor’s agenda is to take current capital and grow it through real estate investing, they will tend to avoid high priced areas offering horribly low rent to price ratios. Let’s say that more plainly. Are you as an investor more attracted to a million dollar property with $25-50,000 annual gross income OR would you prefer a properties worth a million bucks sporting gross annual incomes of around $95-100,000?

Your choice - take your time - no rush.

Here’s the point: Insisting upon local product in San Diego or the Bay Area will not only retard your capital growth within an inch of its life, but in chronological terms you’ll delay your retirement many, many years. In the 30 years ending in 2005, those who chose to invest in San Diego (not in most of those years absurdly valued) instead of the Bay Area were literally two commas ahead in terms of dollars. How is that possible? Weren’t there some years when the Bay Area out appreciated San Diego? Possibly, but so what?

In 1975 San Diego leverage was at least twice that of the Bay Area. By the mid-’80s it may have already been triple. When you as an investor can control more property safely your capital growth rate is turbo charged. This isn’t anything new or groundbreaking - just widely ignored. Real estate investors as a group have become infatuated with appreciation. Wrong wrong wrong.

Given the same $250,000 with the ability to make an informed decision regarding what region in which to invest, anywhere in California isn’t even on the C-List. Why? It’s a simple 8th grade math problem. Would you prefer 5% appreciation annually on $2 Million in property OR 10% appreciation on $500,000 in property? The former enjoyed capital growth of $100,000, or a capital growth rate of 40%. The latter accumulated capital growth of $50,000 or a capital growth rate of 20%.

Now bring in the concept of compounding and tax deferred exchanging to periodically recharge your growth rate, and those numbers grow further and further apart. After only 5-10 years the investor who chose to go where it made sense can’t even see the other guy in his rear view mirror any longer.

The lesson is clear: Keep your eye on the ball - and the ball is capital growth rate not appreciation rate. California properties simply can no longer compete with other growth regions.

If you’re a Bay Area investor wishing to safely improve your real estate portfolio’s performance, just keep your eye on the ball - the right ball. That ball cannot be found in the Bay Area.

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All hail our legislative and executive branches for passing into law the latest shot of adrenaline to our economy: the 2008 stimulus package. And it looks like a record was set with how fast the bill became law– wow, pretty impressive… Efforts like providing consumers with tax refund checks and businesses with additional write-offs should certainly inject the economy with billions of dollars, but many have asked me how raising the conforming loan limit, especially in CA, will truly stimulate the economy. Further, many of those have asked me whether it’s really the right thing to do.

Let’s start with whether it’s the right thing to do. Probably one of the better arguments against raising the conforming loan limit is the fact that doing so seems to reward those institutions and individuals that/who put us into this mess. If estimates by the National Association of Realtors is correct, 500,000 refinance transactions will be generated, 300,000 additional homes will be purchased and 210,000 foreclosures will be avoided. So if we conservatively estimate the revenue generated and the losses avoided using industry standards, the total is over 40 billion dollars! $40 billion certainly helps answer the question of how such an effort helps the economy; but again, why help those who caused billions of dollars of losses and a turned the market upside down? Shouldn’t we be punishing those bad, bad people and institutions? Well, the truth is that many of those institutions and individuals have gone away or moved on. So let’s take a moment to see what’s being created here.

Raising the conforming loan limit has the following benefits:

1. It does in fact greatly stimulate the economy
2. Many consumers who got in over their head will now be able to afford their mortgage
3. Greater affordability for housing is created
4. It will influence a portion of the jumbo market that has been lost and create some investor confidence, and finally
5. California has been long overdue to have a raise to the conforming limit given that over 50% of the nation’s jumbo mortgages were originated in California.

Okay, let’s say that raising the conforming loan limit is good for a moment. What’s next and what are the details? There’s still some speculation, but here goes:

1. The conforming loan amount will be determined based on 125% of the median price of a given county…
2. This allowance will NOT go into effect for purchase or refinance transactions until July 1, 2008 (that’s the earliest date that the loan application may be signed) since the market needs from now to June 30, 2008 to liquidate current qualifying mortgages available for sale from institutions
3. The types of programs allowed will be fixed-rate programs on a full-doc basis, which means that the hybrid, interest-only programs using “stated” income will not be allowed
4. The property must be single-family and owner occupied, which means that 2nd homes, investment properties and multi-unit properties are ineligible
5. Credit scores must be “reasonable” with a combined loan-to-value not to exceed 90%
6. No cash-out, which means that a refinance may not allow the borrower to receive any greater than $2,000 at closing
7. Loans must be funded and closed prior to December 31, 2008

The last question really has to do with what pricing of conforming loans will look like come July 1, 2008. My prediction is that, all things being equal today, that conforming loan rates will increase and that jumbo loan rates will decrease, leaving a much smaller margin between conforming and jumbo loans in the future. Since all things won’t be equal due to decreased short-term rates by the Fed and the overall stimulus package helping the economy, conforming loan rates will increase greater than jumbo loan rates will decrease. So, if you’re buying closer to the conforming level today, you’re better off getting a mortgage for the long term; if you’re at the jumbo level today, you’re likely better off going more for a short-term solution. Of course always consult closely with your mortgage, tax and legal professional for the best advice as it relates to your individual situation.

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A “Short Sale” is a sale of real property in which the outstanding obligations (loan balances) are greater than the amount that the property can be sold for.  This is typically the case when home prices are falling, and the seller has financial distress from either a reduction in income or an increase in monthly loan payments such a re-casting of the existing rate. Successfully completing a short sale may have a far less negative impact on the seller’s credit and tax circumstances than a foreclosure would.  A foreclosure will severely damage the borrower’s credit score for the next 7-10 years, and rates on any future loans they apply for during that time will have interest payments based on about 3 times what prevailing interest rates are.

A short sale is typically done during the foreclosure process, after a Notice of Default” has been filed. A short sale will stop the Trustee Sale which concludes the foreclosure process.

At this point, you may be thinking to yourself, “Why in the world would a bank agree to a short sale?” The answer is fairly simple:

Banks are in the business of lending money and not owning real estate. If a home is in foreclosure because the borrower is in default, that’s called a non-performing loan. Federal Reserve guidelines state that the bank must put aside two to eight times the amount of the non-performing loan to cover the bad debt. If this money is sitting in reserve, it obviously can’t be loaned out to new customers to make the bank more money. As a matter of fact, there are strict federal guidelines as to how many bad loans a bank can even have on their books at any given time. If a certain percentage of their outstanding loans are considered bad debt, they can be fined, sanctioned and even federally regulated.  So you see, they are quite eager to get rid of a property before they have to take it all the way to a Trustee Sale and possibly take it back as an REO (which by the way stands for Real Estate Owned.)  Not to mention the fact that the foreclosure process is long and expensive for the lender involved.

A short sale is accomplished by sending the lender a “Short Sale Package” which includes many documents supporting the fact that the borrower can no longer pay their mortgage and must sell the property at a loss to the lender, and the only other alternative is foreclosure.  Things included in the short sale package include: financial statements, pay stubs, medical bills, divorce decree, etc.  Also included will be a detailed letter from the homeowner, called the “Hardship Letter,” explaining why they can’t make their mortgage payments anymore.  The most important part of the package will be… an offer!  True, the lender will most likely not even look at a short sale package if it does not have an actual written offer from an interested buyer.

A short sale is an often complicated process, and can be lengthy, sometimes taking upwards of 3-4 months to get the whole thing done, especially if the real estate agent doesn’t know what they’re doing. Therefore, much of the success or failure in accomplishing a short sale depends on the real estate agent involved.  I specialize in foreclosures and short sales and have many unique methods for getting short sales approved quickly.  I also work with a large number of homebuyers and investors who are ready to make offers on properties immediately.

I know that being in the middle of the foreclosure process can be very stressful and frightening, and that understanding the process and what your options are can shed some light on the situation and help you feel better about it.  My goal is to truly help people get out of this terrible predicament and move on with their lives.

If you have any questions about your particular situation, or about foreclosures and short sales in general, please don’t hesitate to .

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I’d like to thank Kristen Emery at Princeton Capital in Palo Alto for providing me with the first bit of information that actually explains what the changes to conforming loans will mean to someone in Silicon Valley trying to buy a home.

A little light reading for you:

We have seen a whirlwind of legislative activity these past few weeks! There is much confusion surrounding the recentlypassed Economic Stimulus Package and higher loan limits. Unfortunately, the new law can be confusing to decipher, andnot everyone will benefit. For this reason, we have provided an outline below that clarifies what this new law means for youand how you can benefit from the higher loan limits. 

Description and Overview:An economic stimulus package just passed Congress on February 7, 2008 and was signed into law by the President onFebruary 13, 2008. This new law is effective immediately and includes a temporary increase in both the FHA andconforming loan limits to as high as $729,750 in high cost areas. This means that the interest rates on many mortgages willgo down because these loans are now eligible to be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or insured by the FederalHousing Administration (FHA). Previously, the FHA was only allowed to insure loans with balances lower than $200,160 -$362,790, depending on the county where the property was located. Also, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were only allowedto purchase loans with balances at or below $417,000. This resulted in limited options and higher financing costs for thosewith loan balances above these limits. The new law substantially increases these limits in high cost areas and opens upnew options and lower financing costs for many people. 

How to Determine “High Cost” AreasThere are two things you must know in order to determine if you are in a high cost area: 

1. Understanding the Formula

If 125% of the local area median home price exceeds $417,000, the temporary loan limitwould be that 125% of the median home price with a cap of $729,750. Here are threeexamples to illustrate this concept: If the median home price in your area is $375,000, 125% of that number is$468,750. Thisis above the current $417k conforming loan limit. Therefore, the conforming loan limit inyour area WILL change and go up to $468,750. This number is also higher than thehighest FHA loan limits, so therefore your FHA loan limit will also go up to $468,750. If the median home price in your area is $650,000, 125% of that number is $812,500.This number is greater than the maximum cap of $729,250. Therefore, the conforming loan limit in your area willincrease to highest allowable amount under this new law which is $729,250. (Our median home price is $612,000 for Santa Clara County). 

2. Determining the Median Home Price in Your Area

The Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) will publish the median house prices within 30 days of the billgoing into effect (30 days from February 13, 2008). HUD does not have any interim stats or information for us to use. However, the bill also states that HUD can use any commercially available data if they are unable to compile theinformation on their own within the 30 day timeframe. With that in mind, it is likely that HUD’s numbers will be relativelyconsistent with the data published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which already has a solid track record oftracking and publishing this information on a quarterly basis. Therefore, until HUD actually publishes their version of the median home prices, the most accurate way to get thisinformation today is to utilize the data that is published by NAR. Ironically, NAR just released their latest median homeprice update for the 4th quarter of 2007 on February 14, 2008! Contact me today and I’ll research your info and let youknow exactly what the median home price is in your area and how you can benefit from this information. 

What do all the dates mean?

There is some confusion because the bill has a provision that says the higher limits areonly effective for loans originated between July 1, 2007 and December 31, 2008. Inshort, the reason it is effective beginning July 1, 2007, is because the credit crisis startedto unfold in July and August of 2007. Mortgage market conditions rapidly deterioratedalmost overnight. Many secondary market investors suddenly refused to purchase loansthat couldn’t be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. (For more info on how this processworks, please see the article entitled Saga of the US Mortgage Industry.) Unfortunately, many mortgage banks had already funded these loans in their ownportfolio or through their warehouse lines of credit. Their intention was obviously to sellthese loans on the secondary market after the loans were funded. However, the creditcrisis prevented them from doing so, and they were stuck holding these loans in theirportfolio. The July 1, 2007 date in the bill is designed to allow these lenders to unloadthese mortgages and sell them on the secondary market to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. 

However, the July 1, 2007 date has no bearing whatsoever on new refinance transactions!

In other words, it doesn’tmatter when the loan you are refinancing was originated. The old loan could have been originated in 2005, 2006 oranytime before or after July 1, 2007 and it would have no effect whatsoever on your current purchase or refinancetransaction.

If you are refinancing a new loan today, whether it is a purchase or refinance transaction, that loan issubject to the new limits set forth in the bill. 

The other date of December 31, 2008 means that the old limits will go back into effect after this year. In other words, now isthe perfect time to buy a new home or refinance your mortgage because after this year, your costs will be higher and youroptions more limited again. 

When does this all go into effect?

February 13, 2008 – immediately upon the President’s signature. Therefore, HUD is obligated to publish the median homeprices within 30 days of that date. However, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and various wholesale lenders may have different policies as to how these new loans are going to be priced and underwritten.

 - - - Information provided by:

Kristen Emery

Princeton Capital

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. . . Said my friend Amy to me the other day. Since she is sort of a typical first time buyer, (actually not), I decided to make an example of her and contribute to her 15 mins of fame.

Amy is your somewhat typical Sillycon Valley MBA tech-marketing type. She works in marketing for a large company, so her income is derived from her salary, as opposed to commissions or stock options that may or may not vest. The company is stable, so her bonuses tend to be consistent and her income fairly predictable. She recently moved from one giant tech company to a large one, so she has a number of years of experience in her industry and job classification, excellent credit, and some equity from a condo that she sold.

Being an MBA, and financially conservative (politically liberal), she can comfortably afford something in the $650K price range, even in the current lending environment. The previous idea was for her to take out two mortgages, a conforming loan of $417,000, and then a second or equity line to cover the rest.

Now that Mr. W. has signed off on the stimulus package that included a short-term increase in the conforming loan limit for 2008, Amy’s interest in buying a house has gone up. The tax rebate will let her buy her kids a happy meal and some new jeans, so her interest is much more in the mortgage changes.

At the time of our conversation, the difference in rates between a conforming (under $417,000) and jumbo ($417,001+) loan was about .75%, depending on a million things, which I will leave to co-contributor Eric Trailer to explain. Jsut plugging in some numbers, on a loan of $585,000 (10% down on our $650K house), her payments would drop about $4300 a year excluding taxes if that loan was at the lower rate. Now we are talking interesting.

Admittedly, this is very simplified, because it doesn’t take into account the cost of a conforming first and then a second, or whether lenders will have tiered pricing based on the loan amount, or credit scores, documented vs. non-documented income, etc., etc., etc.

My intent is to show the effect of this new law on “normal” Silicon Valley home buyers who have “normal” jobs, and are trying to put a roof over their heads. While the tax rebates of a few hundred dollars will only have minor impacts on most of us (I get $300, I think), the effect on home buying capability will be potentially significant.

Let the comments fly, and thanks for reading.

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Embargoed for release until 9:00pm (hence the 9:01pm time stamp!) is the news that Zillow has just released their Q4 2007 analysis. It ain’t pretty.

Giant swathes of the country are bathed in the bright red color of price decreases and upside-down homeowners…here, for instance, is the national map of homes with negative equity. The bubblistas are gonna love this one!

Here’s how to interpret that map: 50% or more of the homes bought in 2007 in, say, Modesto are now worth less than what the owner still owes on the property. Sounds pretty grim, and it certainly is if you’re one of those homeowners…especially since we Californians have taken it as our God-given right to have property appreciate steadily year on year.

Here’s a map I’d like to see: the percent of homes bought in 2005, 2004, 2003…pretty much any year going back which are now “under water.” Instead of bloody red color so much loved by the bubblistas, we’d see a map bathed from sea to shining sea — including even the fabled fruited plains themselves — would be painted a joyful bright green, the color signifying “0% to 10%.” In fact, the map would have to be modified to show the precise number 0%.

Moral of that story: I feel your pain, trust me. If you bought a home in 2007 in Modesto, and life circumstances force you to sell it in 2008…your life sucks. Absolutely. But what about those who can stick it out for 2, 3, perhaps 5 years that this market will remain sucky for much of the country? Life for them won’t suck. Absolutely.

Let’s examine San Mateo County. Zillow’s “Z-index” for the whole county shows a 5.5% drop — that’s right, a drop — quarter on quarter. Translation: If in 2007 Q3 you bought a hypothethical home that covered the entire county, that home’s value dropped by 5.5% by Q4 of 2007.

Sounds grim, right? Again, let’s look at the whole story…

Here’s a city-by-city heat map of price appreciation from Q4 2006 to Q4 2007 … and in this map, red is good (at least for homeowners; for perma-renters and bubblistas it gives heartburn.)

Interpretation:

Huge swathes of San Jose, the East Bay and further inland, plus some pockets of the Peninsula — like East Palo Alto and South San Francisco and Redwood City — are down, in some cases dramatically. Most of the Peninsula, however, saw price increases from 2006 to 2007; in particular, the marquee towns of Palo Alto, Menlo Park, Atherton, Cupertino, Los Gatos, and Saratoga saw prices go up 10% or more.

Folks, it’s a mixed message out there: a lot of the country is in pain. But just remember this, as always: Real estate is local, local, local. Just because prices in Vegas haven’t fallen doesn’t mean you should sell your particular home and live in a tent. You need to look at the price trends in your neighborhood.

Oh, and the “multiple offers” mentioned in the title? Here’s a small sampling of what the rumor mill says has happened in the last week…

• Saratoga — $1.8M - ish –> 15-20 offers (two incidents)
• San Carlos — $850K - ish –> Two properties sold with a combined 13 offers. (Hat tip to Arn Cenedella, a Menlo Park Realtor, for providing that particular juicy piece of gossip.)

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First, an upfront disclaimer:  I am not a termite inspector, nor do I pretend to be one.  I neither give nor get referrals for getting termite work done on a client’s house.  I don’t own a termite company, nor do I have any stake, financial or otherwise, in the success or failure of any particular method of treating termites.  If your home has recently been treated with Orange Oil, or you are considering getting it treated by Orange Oil, you’ll need to do your own research about the product and its efficacy.  I can’t and won’t make a claim either way.

‘Nuff said.

A few weeks ago I wrote an article about the use of Orange Oil to kill termites.   Judging by the traffic to said article, many folks seem to have questions about it.  My content source — remember, I’m not a termite expert — was a newsletter from National Building Inspectors.  What they gave was, shall we say, a less than enthusiastic endorsement.  The precise words:

[NBI] would never certify a home as being ‘free and clear’ of a drywood infestation that was treated with orange oil.

A “Michael Folkins” — just dropped by and left a comment on said article and left his calling card:  a link to the XT2000 site, which appears to belong to the manufacturer/distributor of the Orange Oil product.  Michael’s comment raises an interesting question about traditional termite fumigation:

On average less then 1/2 percent of a home is infested with drywood termites, then WHY DO WE POISON 100% OF THE HOME WITH FUMIGATION?
With true optics we can find headen areas of infestation and kill the colonys and eggs of drywood termites. Sense orange oil

Fair question:  Why do we fumigate 100% of the home even though only 1/2 of one percent of it might be infested?  Michael would presumably have us use Orange Oil.

Here’s my understanding:  Yes, only 1/2 of one percent of the home might be infested, but how the heck are you going to find that 1/2 of one percent — which might be scattered in a dozen places — short of borrowing Superman’s power of vision?

As if one vendor dropping by wasn’t enough, Michael’s comment was followed up quickly by an Alex Del Toro — whose calling card points to TermiteGuy.com  Alex is not fond of  Orange Oil:

Mr Folkin is the producer and distribtutor of Orange Oil and needs to defend his worrthless product.

Alex also provides a link to an article he wrote for the — no joke — the Orange County Association of Realtors.

So the next time you hear the words “orange oil,” just remember that it only works on the termites that are accessible, detected and treated with the oil. Unfortunately, unless you live in a concrete slab home with 1920’s board and batten walls, then termite detection is the real issue.

Neither is Alex fond of termites:  he likens them to terrorists.

What say you?  Orange oil good?  Orange oil bad?

More of a perspective:

Marian Bennett, a Realtor in Half Moon Bay, educates us about termite remediation as she channels the words of Kevin Palmer of Premier Termite.

Articlemaniac weighs in on Orange Oil.

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The Superbowl traditionally marks the beginning of the Spring real estate market here in Silicon Valley. True to form, we are seeing inventories climb from seasonal lows, and a lot more people visiting open houses on the weekends. As the media continues to run stories on increasing foreclosures, and an economic stimulus package that includes an increase in the limits for conforming loans wends its way through Congress, more and more people are asking me if this is a good time to buy a home.

 In our area (Palo Alto, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Mountain View), prices have been stable in 2007 (except Palo Alto which is up significantly), and we aren’t seeing the big jumps in foreclosure activity that are widely reported in the media in other areas. As the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to stave off a national recession, loans have become more affordable nationwide, with rates near historic lows.

The majority of short sales and foreclosures in the area have been in homes in the $600,000 price range, having the effect of making many of these homes more affordable as lenders want to get rid of them. In contrast to most economic downturns, the higher - end market is doing better than the lower end.

Fellow contributor and mortgage banker Eric Trailer at Absolute Mortgage Bank in Palo Alto had these thoughts on the local housing market for the next few months:

“The coil on the Spring market is winding tighter every day this year already.  Applications are up 100+% this month over December and January’s production is more than double December’s.  In addition, we continue to be flooded with refinance inquiries this month.  Many of the buyers that we had on the fence have been jumping off in an attempt to get into contract on a home prior to February 9.  Why Feb 9?  That’s the weekend following The Superbowl, and those fence-jumpers feel as though they can avoid the threat of multiple offers by securing their home now.  With many of the top agents that we do business with stating that they have multiple listings coming on the market the week of February 9, combined with the flurry of activity on the buyer’s side, combined further with the strength of our local economy, it’s looks like this Spring will produce transactions well beyond expectation.”

Well Eric, it’s February 10th, my open house for today sold without contingencies 3 days after going on the market, and the number of new listings in Palo Alto this week was double that of any week for about 3 months. It looks like we are off to a good start to 2008, and the local economic indicators are still favorable.

Homes are not liquid investments like stocks, so make sure you actually like the house you are buying, and plan to be there for 5 years or more. With those caveats, in this area, it’s almost always a good time to buy a home.

Thanks for reading.

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Ah yes, the sweet, sweet smell of pork comes wafting across the country from Washington D.C. where, CAR informs us, the final Stimulus Package bill includes increased conforming loan limits — a feature that had earlier been in danger of not making it through.  The CAR press release:

Thanks in part to lobbying by C.A.R. and NAR members, the Senate passed their version of an economic stimulus package today, Thursday, February 07, 2008.  The Senate version expands rebate checks for seniors and disabled veterans and includes the same increases to the conforming loan limits for both GSE and FHA found in the House stimulus package.  The House just passed the Senate version of the bill  and it will now be sent to the White House. The President is expected to sign the legislation by the end of next week, ahead of the Congressional self-appointed deadline of February 15^th.   The increase in the conforming loan limits will last through 2008, but C.A.R. and NAR continue to lobby for FHA and GSE reform,  making these increases permanent.

Interpretation:  it’s an election year and the national debt already has more digits than a centipede, so what’s another couple of gazillion bucks?

As soon as this bill passes, expect a wave of re-financing for folks in California and other high-priced states who weren’t able to qualify for conforming loans at the old limit of $417K, but will now qualify with the higher limit of some $700K.  Given that the delta between interest rates on conforming and Jumbo loans is a full percent or more, that could spell big relief for some.

Problem is:  Will the typical homeowner who benefits from this actually squirrel away the extra couple of hundred bucks, or instead blow it on more toys?

Other commentary:

• theFrontSteps modestly shuns credit for the bill’s passage.
• SocketSite hosts a lively comment debate on the topic.

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