SubscribeWhy Borrowers Default - Interesting Reading
June 5, 2009
I saw this on a blog on the Wall Street Journal, but a recently released paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta looked at loan defaults on loans with a high mortgage payment to income ratio, and found that rising interest rates DID NOT significantly correlate to default rates.
The two main indicators of a borrower’s likelihood of defaulting were (drumroll please . . . ):
- Unemployment
- Declining future home prices
Uh, oh, that sounds familiar here in Silicon Valley where unemplyment is 10.9%, and home prices in even the most resilient neighborhoods are off 10%. The article goes further to quote some numbers from the study:
“The Fed paper estimates that a 1-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate boosts the chance of a 90-day delinquency by 10%-20%, and a 10-percentage point fall in house prices raises the probability of a default by more than half. A 10-percentage-point jump in the debt-to-income ratio, meanwhile, increases the chance of a 90-day delinquency by 7%-11%.”
So, the 5% increase in unemployment over the last 18 months translates to a 50% increase in the likelihood of default. The 10-20% drop in local housing prices translates to a 14% - 22% increase in the likehood of default. Wow . . .
Thursday’s announcement that delinquencies and foreclosures have hit all time highs underscores the relevance of this study. The authors of the Fed paper recommend programs to assist borrowers who have lost their jobs get through their temporary economic challenge. The WSJ authors have an alternative solution; boosting short sales to get borrowers out of their homes.
Which do I think will come to pass? Well, I have been getting training on short sales the last couple of months, and I have already seen two short sale listings in Los Altos this month.
Read it at the source. Here is the WSJ blog article, and HERE is the Fed paper. Read ‘em and weep.
Thanks for reading . . .
Tags: Atlanta Fed, avoiding foreclosure, foreclosure, loan modification, short sale, Wall Street JournalThe Market Report - June 2009
June 5, 2009
I send my clients a monthly market update and thought I’d share it with the blogosphere. If you agree and think that I’m a genius, please comment below. If you disagree and think I’m an idiot, keep your thougths to yourself. You can send me an email to subscribe to your city of interest (Atherton, Los Altos, Los Altos Hills, Menlo Park, Mountain View, or Palo Alto), and I’ll add you to my monthly update list. The commentary is as of June 1, 2009, that data is real-time.
May brought a ray of light into the local real estate market, as consumers, boosted by the rising stock market and low interest rates, began buying up homes on the market. Both Pending Sales and Pending Prices are up (see attached chart for a historical comparison), absorption numbers have outpaced new inventory both statewide and locally, and multiple offers on homes in Los Altos and Palo Alto have come back into play. At the low end, investors are superheating the Santa Clara and San Jose markets for single-family homes under $500,000, with many bank owned properties getting 20 – 30 mostly cash or all cash offers.
In general, prices are at about 2004 levels, and interest rates continue to hover near historic lows, with conforming loans under 5% for 30 years, and Jumbo loans staying around 6%. The big question on everyone’s’ mind is, “How long will this last?”
This past week we saw rates on the 10 year bond jump 0.5%, putting upward pressure on mortgage rates, which responded by rising for the different conforming loans. To get some additional input on whether this is short-term volatility or a longer term trend, I called my favorite mortgage bankers, who all had the same opinion, and all disagree (with all due respect) with Fed Chairman Bernanke that we will be out of the woods by the end of 2009.
The abridged version is that the government is subsidizing rates on loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (who are backed by taxpayers), so long-term mortgage rates are unsustainably low. The funds being used to subsidize these loans are finite, and limited, so there is upward pressure on the various conforming rates to rise to the real market rate of 6% as we are seeing in the Jumbo market.
Unusually, BOTH Buyers and Sellers are facing threats from market forces, creating compelling arguments to act now:
Sellers:
- Rising interest rates cut the purchasing power of Buyers, reducing the pool of potential Buyers for a given property
- The threat of rising unemployment and continuing slowing of the economy reduces consumer confidence and spending, especially on big-ticket items like cars and houses
- The current tax incentives for buying homes are limited to 2009. Reduced government from taxes due to lower incomes and corporate earnings makes it less likely that these are extended in 2010.
Buyers:
- That unemployment thing
- Qualifying for mortgages is getting more difficult, and the regulation of the process has tightened, adding new hurdles to the underwriting and appraisal process as the market overcorrects for the Wild West of the last few years.
- Rising rates cut purchasing power
Wow, kind of heavy stuff for a Friday. The good news is that summer is less than 3 weeks away!
On to the numbers:
Atherton:
Currently, the Median Price of a Single Family Home in Atherton is $3,996,500 with a range of $899,000 to 16,800,000. 48% (versus 41% last month) of the homes in Atherton have had price reductions, as Sellers are accepting that the market has shifted, and the average number of Days on Market has risen to 133 days from 114 last month, meaning that we should see more price reductions as the market searches for equilibrium.
Los Altos:
Currently, the Median Price of a Single Family Home in Los Altos is $1,999,900. 36% (up from 32% last month) of the homes in Los Altos have had price reductions, as Sellers are learning that the market has shifted, and the average number of Days on Market has dropped slightly to 98 days versus 96 last month.
Los Altos Hills:
Currently, the Median Price of a Single Family Home in Los Altos Hills is $3,146,500. 36% (up from 23% last month) of the homes in Los Altos Hills have had price reductions, as Sellers are learning that the market has shifted, and the average number of Days on Market has dropped to 173 days versus 187 last month.
Menlo Park:
Currently, the Median Price of a Single Family Home in Menlo Park is $1,447,000. 38% (versus 37% last month) of the homes in Menlo Park have had price reductions, as Sellers are resisting that the market has shifted, and the average number of Days on Market has risen to 127 days from 116 last month.
Mountain View:
Currently, the Median Price of a Single Family Home in Mountain View is $899,000. 55% (versus 38% last month) of the homes in Mountain View have had price reductions, as Sellers are learning that the market has shifted, and the average number of Days on Market has decreased to 121 days from 127 last month.
Palo Alto:
Currently, the Median Price of a Single Family Home in Palo Alto is $1,595,000. 41% (versus 43% last month) of the homes in Palo Alto have had price reductions, as Sellers are resisting accepting that the market has shifted, and the average number of Days on Market has risen to 99 days from 94 last month.
Pendings, Applications and Multiple Offers all UP
May 15, 2009
Fellow contributor sent this to me, and I thought is was worth sharing. I’ll have Administrator Kevin re-post this under his authorship when he has a minute….
We are finally seeing seeing a little sunlight through the economic gloom, both nationally and locally. Take a look at these new statistics, and some anecdotal data from here in Palo Alto.
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, pending home sales in the US were up 3.2% last month (3.9% in the West) and 1.1% over last year (1.7% for the West)
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, pendings were up 28.2% last month (23.9% in the West) and 3.2% over last year (4.3% in the West)– wow
What’s significant about this is not only the fact that we continue to see more homes selling, but the index itself is running at volumes similar to what we saw in 2001! Further, this activity helps to stabilize the market, which leads to:
- more available lending, especially for the non-conforming (jumbo’s equity lines, construction financing) market
- helps the conforming market by enabling the MI companies to insure up to 95% again, as opposed to the 85% that they’re at now
- appraisal report concerns reduce
- reduces the emotional aspect of the sale that has created a tremendous amount of tension in the marketplace, as both buyer and seller feel more comfortable about moving forward
A factor that could be contributing to this increased volume is REO’s since Fannie and Freddie had a moratorium on foreclosures from December through March. As such, we may see a slight decrease in the median home price for the month of April. That written, it’s been the first-time homebuyers who have been driving this market, and first-timers don’t prefer to buy REO’s due to the headaches and lack of disclosure involved.
Purchase Applications Continue to Increase
Up 5% over last week on purchase applications, with no signs of slowing down. Refi’s are naturally very volatile as rates fluctuate with supply and demand. Overall, the conforming-level loans applications take the majority of overall applications but we have seen non-conforming application double this month over last.
On conforming loans ($ to $729,750) no matter how hard the government (taxpayers) works to throw money into the system, demand continues to outstrip supply driving rates higher.
On non-conforming loans, rates are driven by deposit rates, which have remained low this year. The 30-year is running about 6% with the 10/1 about 5.5%, the 7/1 about 5.25%, the 5/1 about 5% and the 3-year at 4.75%
Any mortgage rate below 7% is beating the average over the last 40 years.
Multiple Offers Coming Back
Last night one of our clients was the successful bidder of FOURTEEN total contracts submitted- wow! And, yes, this was on a $1.3mm home in Palo Alto. The important thing to remember is that going the old strategy of “as is” with “no contingencies” against multiple offers should be used with high caution when there’s a loan involved and the loan-to-value limits are applicable. Why? The due-diligence process on loans is 4X what it used to be, and appraisal reports are highly scrutinized; as such, it’s recommended that only the most qualified buyers consider proceeding as above.
Mortgage Process, Guidelines and Discretion
Did you know that a loan is actually NEVER officially committed until it funds? In most of the US, the financing contingency runs all the way to funding.
For the first time in 10 years, underwriters are using discretion to determine an applicant’s ability to replay a loan; as such, guidelines are just that—guidelines—and transactions may be in jeopardy if the process is rushed. A good example are those borrowers who have had a bankrupts in the past. Individuals who file bankruptcy once are 80% likely to do so again in their lifetime. An underwriter may see that a credit score requirement is met, but if the overall profile of the applicant’s repayment history is highly questionable, the request could be severely altered or declined.
The process is far more involved than it’s ever been, for both good and bad reasons. As such, we all need to keep in mind that closing dates need to be flexible. Additional due diligence is required on every transaction, and the verification process alone is one that can make the difference between a deal closing and a deal blowing up. A solid, reliable lending source will always provide proper guidance and multiple solutions
In a nutshell, BofA and Morgan Stanley are ranked at the bottom with Citibank and Wells in the middle, JP Morgan and Goldman at the top… The need to raise additional capital places stress on the system and essentially forces rates up since investors know that additional capital is required and will therefore demand a premium for it. For a 4-page version of the results, check out RBC’s summary.
Tags: 4---mortgage-mania, loan, Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, mortgage rates, Mortgages, palo alto real estate market, Stress testBuydowns and the Bottom
March 31, 2009
If you were in the market to buy a $2,000,000 home home in the Bay Area, would it make a differnce to you if the monthly investment was less than $5,000 with a 30% down payment? And I’m not just talking about the mortgage payment, I am talking about complete, tax adjusted cash flow including a 4.25% 30-year mortgage fixed for 10 years, property taxes and homeowners insurance. Sound too good to be true? It’s not. And yes it beats market rental rates by thousands.
Interest-rate buydowns are one of the most effective methods for both buyers and seller to obtain what they want, which of course is value. For the sellers, buying down an interest rate can have up to 8X the power over a price reduction, depending on the cost to buy the rate down. For buyers, a lower rate means higher qualification and bragging rights of having the lowest mortgage rate on the planet. In the example above:
- If the buyer was qualified up to $1.8mm at 5.5%, they are now qualified at $2mm at 4.25%
- The seller only needs to invest four points or $56,000 to move the buyer $200,000; thus a $56,000 investment saves the seller about $144,000, which is therefore about FOUR TIMES more effective than reducing price
I use the example above since I have been receiving a tremendous amount of inquiries about what’s happening at the higher end, which are those homes selling at $1.5mm+, and whether creative financing has been more common than not. What we’re seeing is that creative financing, like interest rate buydowns and seller financing, are definitely more common at all price points. But what’s been rather fascinating to watch is that many sellers are becoming less inclined to reduce price, despite the fact that prices are off by between 7% to 17%, depending on which city the property i located. Yet, sellers have been very open to concessions that help them keep their price, despite the net proceeds being reduced. One of the reasons for this, in my opinion, is the fact that buying activity has skyrocketed on the last few weeks, which is obviously encoraging to sellers.
So what’s drivng the buying activity? Well, for starters, it seems like many buyers properly sensed that we’ve hit the proverbial “bottom” of the real estate market, which was recently confirmed ed by the exisitng home sales figures that came out last week. That’s right, not only are sales of both exisiting and new homes up significantly (4.7% and 5.1% respectively), the US median price and average price were both up in February over January. Add this data to the fact that interest rates have set a new low record, plus further validation from one of most respected economic forecasting sources avalable, the UCLA forecast, that 2010 will be a year of recovery, and it becomes clearer and clearer that there couldn’t be a greater opprtunity to buy real estate.
No tag for this post.Change, Logic and Money
January 23, 2009
January is a month typically filled with many things inspirational, and I must say that January 2009 appears exceptional. In listening to Obama’s inaugural speech on Tuesday, my own interpretation was, “The power of change begins with me. With you. The sooner we all believe that we can change things for the better, the sooner we ACT to make things better.”
Would you like a tax credit of $7,500 for buying a home? And I mean a REAL credit, not the 0.00% loan that the 2008 stimulus package was enactingfor firs time home buyers? Well, that’s the latest possible modification going forward as part of the 2009 Stimulus Package, and it’s NOT limited to first time home buyers. There’s discussion that ANYONE wanting to buy residential real estate will be entitled to this $7,500credit. As you know, a tax credit directly offsets the amount of federal tax that you may owe the federal government—it’s not a reduction in taxable income—which makes this a very compelling reason for would be home seekers and investors to make a purchase this year.
Want another compelling reason why the smart, savvy buyers are acting sooner than later? Because they know that average appreciation rates in California are 8.8% over the last 40 years (yes we all know that the Peninsula is much greater), and today provide an opportunity for both tremendous value and cheap financing. Let’s think about real value for a moment. The last year we had average appreciation in California, it was the year 2001 (8.7%). If we strip out the overbuilt areas of California.., and concentrate specifically on areas where housing expansion is extremely limited, like the Peninsula, one can simply take the median price of comparable homes in 2001, add 8.8% appreciation per year, depreciate appropriate improvements to the property and a value may be derived. Thus, if a would-be buyer can obtain a home at that value or better, and combine the cheap cost financing, that’s an ideal move on a fundamental basis, whether the purchase is for shelter or for investment.
Want more? OK. How about the fact that, since 1968, there have only been four real periods of decline: 1984 (0.1%, so not really), 1990 (only 1.2%, despite the Loma Prieta earthquake in October 1989), 1992-1996 (Average of 2.44% despite a major recession following a major earthquake) and today (yes, believe it or not, there was NO decline for CA as a whole in 2001 when the stock market crashed; in fact, it was up 8.7% in 2001 and up over 20% in 2002. All the more reason why 2001 is a good basis to use.
Want even more? “Thank you, Sir, may I have another?” Sure. How about the fact that I have personally bought at a low point (1994), sold and bought at a high point (2000), sold and bought at a mid point (2004) and came out ahead EVERY time. In fact, that stepping-stone approach toward buying a home in Palo Alto without a trust fund was a goal realized solely because of real-estate appreciation. On that note, let’s review again the fundamentals of buying real estate for both the person seeking shelter and the person seeking an investment.
For those seeking shelter, it does not matter which price point one is buying at today, as there is good value on property and cheap money available now. It also matters very little at this point whether we’re at the bottom of the current cycle. The reality is that interest rates across the board, combined with attractive pricing, have made it far more financially advantageous to buy versus rent. And with a 5-year holding period, equity is protected and an increase to net worth is likely. For those looking to buy their primary residence, and who are also trying to time the market, they will likely be settling for less desirable property at a higher cost…
For those seeking investment, there are properties everywhere that are positively cash flowing, thanks again to a strong combination of value and very cheap financing. A recent example I looked at was a 4-plex here on the Peninsula going for about $900k, and it POSITIVELY cash flowed with only 10% down! To boot, if the client had 30% to place, it would yield a capitalization rate of almost 3%– that’s HUGE for residential property investment on the Peninsula!
What about financing? Mortgage banks offer the greatest breadth and depth of available programs, but large institutions with reputable loan professionals are a good alternative . As you may have heard this week, Chase is the latest major player to cease brokerage operations (yet they are still buying paper from mortgage banks) making it tougher for brokers to source money. Rates on conforming programs have risen in recent weeks, but rates are still very attractive around 5%. Further, rates on non-conforming/jumbo programs have also been very attractive at rates BELOW 5%.
Please keep in mind that seller financing is an ideal way for buyers to buy more valuable property while protecting their liquidity and sellers to obtain a great investment while selling their property at a reasonable price. Many are waking up to this option, which will undoubtedly move greater inventory.
No tag for this post.Will a short sale hurt my credit score?
January 15, 2009
When I meet with homeowners who are struggling with their mortgage are maybe behind on payments and have no equity in their home, we always discuss their options when it comes to avoiding foreclosure. We usually get through my report and if it appears that their only option is to sell their house in a short sale, I always get this question - “Will a short sale hurt my credit score? And if so, by how much?”
I have been doing a lot of research on this topic recently, and what I have found is there is a lot of mis-information out there. It’s tough to find any definitive information about the impact of a short sale or foreclosure on one’s credit report.
I recently came across some great information provided by a mortgage broker and former underwriter in Southern California, Catherine Coy, on the www.BiggerPockets.com forums, where she explains that in terms of the Fair Issac scoring model, there is no difference between a foreclosure, a short sale, and a 120 day late (Notice of Default). Here is an excerpt from her post:
It’s a total myth that somehow a short sale is less damaging to one’s credit. Why? Because the following events are all the same; that is, the definition of a ” foreclosure” by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is:
Foreclosure
None in past 5 years with minimum 3 active trade lines more than 24 months old, with no late payments or derogatory credit after the foreclosure.
Definition of Foreclosure: Any 120 day mortgage late within the last 24 months, any notice of default or settlement on a real estate secured trade line (short sale), any deed-in-lieu or forbearance agreements.
The above is straight out of the Fannie Mae Selling Guide, so it’s not speculation or conjecture. All underwriters know the facts: foreclosure/short sale = same/same.
The hit to one’s FICO score is EXACTLY the same because each of the above events results in Score Factor Code #22–” serious delinquency, derogatory public record or collection.”
Now if you’re thinking, well, why would I do a short sale then? There are still other very compelling reasons to complete a short sale as opposed to letting your home go to foreclosure. The biggest reason is that you will be able to get another mortgage and buy a home again in two years after a short sale, whereas you will have to wait 5 years after a foreclosure. There is also the social stigma of having gone through foreclosure as opposed to being in control of the process and selling your home. There’s something to be said for saving your dignity.
If you want to read more of Catherine’s analysis, you can follow the discussion thread here:
http://www.biggerpockets.com/topics/17598-do-short-sales-hurt-your-credit-score-?page=1
Mortgage Mania 26 - …And Henry Giveth Again
November 25, 2008
You would have to be living under a rock to have missed this today, so here is a newsflash for all you subterranian dwellers. Henry Paulson’s latest bailout plan now consists of borrowing $800 Billion from The Fed to buy up mortgage assets, consumer credit card debt and car loans.
In his article, “Fed bets $800 billion on consumers“ on CNNMoney today, writer Chris Isidore shares Uncle Henry’s latest plans:
“The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department on Tuesday unveiled a plan to pump $800 billion into the struggling U.S. economy in an attempt to jumpstart lending by banks to consumers and small businesses.
The government hopes that these initiatives will enable more money to flow to consumers in the form of loans than has occurred so far in previous bailout plans.
One program will make $200 billion available from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to holders of securities backed by consumer debt, such as credit cards, car loans and student loans.
The Treasury Department will allocate $20 billion to back that lending in order to cover any losses that the New York Fed might suffer.
In addition, the Federal Reserve, announced it will purchase up to $500 billion in mortgage backed securities that have been backed by Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500), Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500) and Ginnie Mae, the three government-sponsored mortgage finance firms set up to promote home ownership. It will also buy another $100 billion in direct debt issued by those firms.”
Hmmm, buying mortgage backed securities . . . wasn’t that how TARP was sold to Congress in the first place? The idea of the US Government buying up toxic mortgage assets in an attempt to get the three remaining solvent banks to start underwriting mortgages is enough to get any red-blooded Realtor’s blood pumping again. If this restarts the housing market, let’s all be sure to thank the lobbyists working for NAR, and remember them on our Christmas lists.
The Fed goes the original plan one better by setting aside $200 Billion to buy securities backed by auto loan and credit card debt. Hmmm, let me see if I get this straight . . .
The idea behind mortgage backed securities was that they were safe because they were backed by the houses those mortgages were written against, and the logic was that those were APPRECIATING assets. This worked great until housing prices started falling, and the underlying assets were worth LESS than the loans on them.
A car drops 20% in value the minute you drive it off the lot, so you are already upside down on the loan if you put down less than 20%. The car ads are all touting $0 down, so let’s assume that most buyers today are putting down less than 20%. So . . . is this Groundhog Day?
Don’t get me started on buying credit card debt . . .
This is another reason I don’t work in the Treasury Department. That, and that pesky question about blog articles that would embarrass the President.
You can read the full text of the article HERE.
Thanks for reading . . .
Tags: 2008 real estate market, Fed bailout, mortgage bailout, mortgage crisis, mortgage maniaMortgage Mania 25 - Now What?
November 14, 2008
Henry giveth, and Henry taketh away . . .
When Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson asked Congress for $750 Billion (yes, that’s with a B) financial bailout package, the justification was to buy up distressed mortgage assets so that banks would start lending again, and hopefully the epidemic of foreclosures sweeping the nation would be stalled.
The new plan doesn’t include that, of course, which has led to everyone asking, now what?
Lately, I have been holding open houses in Palo Alto pretty regularly, and almost everyone coming in asks me the same question: How is the Market? We discuss the market trends of homes taking longer to sell, increasing numbers of price reductions, the importance of pricing and preparation, etc.
The big shift we are seeing now is the effect of the stock market crash last month. Much of the wealth in Silicon Valley is tied to the stock market (options, grants, etc.). It’s how we pay our executives and employees, reward performance (bonuses), and fuel the venture capital engine. When the market drops over 30%, suddenly, potential home buyers are faced with the prospect of selling stock that is devalued by 30% to pull together the down payment on a home that is priced 5 - 10% off its high (typical Palo Alto home, your results may vary). That is pretty tough to justify, and in many cases potential buyers don’t have enough in their portfolios any more to cover the 20 - 30% down needed for that typical Palo Alto home.
So, we are seeing a bunch of Buyers exiting the market, while the inventory of homes for sale in Palo Alto is about double what it was at this time last year. The result is a Buyer’s Market. Good news if you are a Buyer, bad news if you are a Seller.
Many people in Palo Alto don’t NEED to sell their homes. They may be retired and wanting to move to a smaller home or relocate, or they may be a growing family needing more space. With the exceptions of people relocating out of the area, moving into retirement homes, or those who are selling for financial reasons, many sellers can afford to wait for the market to turn in their favor.
In the short-term, I predict that we will see the inventory of homes for sale drop, even more than the usual seasonality, as potential sellers wait out the market. The big threat to sales and prices is interest rates rising. Remember, that if the rate on a loan goes from 6% to 7%, the payment goes up about 15%. That is a big hit when you are talking about $1M loans, and a economy falling into recession.
For the longer term outlook, I’ll defer to this article that was recently in Money magazine that discusses how the credit crisis nationally is affecting ALL real estate, even here in Palo Alto. We Realtors love to say “All Real Estate is Local”, which is great unless the money to buy that local real estate is affected but national events. This time around, the events are international.
Be sure to follow the links above to see the latest market data for Palo Alto and the surrounding communities, but you may want to fix a drink first. Or, you can register to receive updates on the market in local communities delivered to your email weekly at: www.REMarketReports.com
Thanks for reading . . .
Tags: 2009 forecast, 2009 interest rates, home prices, housing market, housing market turnaround, palo alto economy, Palo alto housing market, palo alto real estate market, recessionMcCain’s debate night bombshell
October 8, 2008
Did you see the debate last night?
During one of the questions about the economy and the financial crisis, McCain dropped a bombshell!
When Tom Brokaw asked about what needs to be done to help the housing market, McCain suggested that Government should buy back all these defaulted loans and then give these people new loans at the current market value of the home. Hmmmm. Will this work? I think not. Why?
Well, let’s see how this would work…
- Joe Homeowner has a house that he bought for $500,000 with a loan from Fly-By-Night Subprime Lending, Inc.
- The house is now worth $400,000
- Joe, like everyone else, has lost a lot of equity in his home
- Unlike other Americans who are responsible and ARE paying their mortgage, Joe qualifies for the Government to buy back his subprime mortgage, because he’s NOT paying his mortgage.
- The Feds buy his mortgage for $500,000 and immediately give him a new mortgage at $400,000, which he may or may not be able to afford
- So now Joe is happy, but only until he can’t make his payments again…
- Good ole’ taxpayers absorb a $100,000 loss
- Multiply by millions of upside-down loans.
So let me ask one simple question - Does this make sense to you?? I suspect there will be a lot of responsible homeowners who are diligently paying their mortgage who will be awfully pissed off that they won’t be getting THEIR mortgage bought by Uncle Sam and reset to current market value.
Don’t get me wrong - I am not against McCain, and this isn’t about one presidential candidate or another. I’m simply saying that this plan does not make sense. However, I haven’t heard either candidate or anyone in congress or the treasury or the federal reserve or the private sector suggest something that might actually work to solve this mortgage mess. Although today, Barack Obama rejected McCain’s plan, and his economic adviser said that McCain’s plan would cause the U.S. Government “to massively overpay for mortgages in a plan that would guarantee taxpayers lose money, and put them at risk of losing even more if home values don’t recover. The biggest beneficiaries of this plan will be the same financial institutions that got us into this mess, some of whom even committed fraud.”
Let’s hope that someone is smart enough to figure out how to use that $700,000,000,000 to get the housing market back on track.
In the meantime, I’m proceeding under the assumption that for the forseeable future, people will need to do a short sale and get their lender to take the loss. So if you know of someone who is underwater and stuggling to keep up with their higher payments as their loan resets to a higher interest rate, tell them you know a foreclosure consultant who can help. I’d be delighted to talk to them.
Tags: bailout plan, financial crisis, mortgage bailout, short sales, subprimeLet’s End The Housing Crisis Here And Now … A Modest Proposal For How To Spend The $700BN
October 7, 2008
Even us “glass half-full” types have to admit the news these days is bad. Any day Congress passes a $700BN and has to tag on only another couple billion or so of Christmas ornaments to get it passed, well, on that day, you know things were urgent, and they had to act fast. Wooden arrow manufacturers, Caribbean distillers, and certain other recipients of congressional largesse pork may be quite happy now, but hopefully the remaining $700BN will be spend actually trying to solve the problem.
And that’s where my modest proposal comes in.
Fundamentally, this crisis is about housing values, or more specifically about uncertainty around housing values. Behind most of the bankrupties, the bailouts, the CDO-thing-a-majiggies … lies a portfolio of mortgage loans whose value is … 3 cents on the dollar? A dime? A quarter? 47 cents? Nobody knows, and therein lies the problems.
Our fearless leaders have proposed spending the $700BN largely on buying these “non-performing assets.” By some financial wizardry, the exact same folks who could not determine the value of these assets in the private market, are about to get hired by Uncle Sam to determine these assets’ values on the taxpayer’s dime.
So here’s what we do instead: Let’s spend that $700BN buying not the mortgages, but the underlying homes themselves. Let’s say homes in the US have an average value of $200K. [Pause for my west and east coast readers to chuckle.] $700BN divided by $200K is … 3,500,000 (three million five hundred thousand.)
That’s right. With $700BN we could buy a couple of million homes. We’d start by buying, say, 75% of the inventory on the market right now. That should restore confidence in the market pretty quickly.
Presto! Problem solved.
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Kevin Boer
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(DRE 01385188)
David Roberson
Attorney
RHRC
San Jose, CA
408.261.4252
Eric Trailer
Mortgage Banker
Absolute Mortgage
Palo Alto, CA
650-493-3600
(DRE 01361721)
