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Which Job Would Be More Frustrating: Social Media Manager at NAR, or Clothing Manager at a Nudist Colony?

I’d say it’s a toss-up.  At least at the nudist colony there might be some, uh, ancillary job benefits, while the NAR position would require moving to Chicago.  And that’s just a start.

Alerted by several folks, including those at NAR Wisdom, about NAR’s new “Social Media Manager” position, I find myself puzzled.  NAR and its state and local brethren are, at heart, finely tuned political action machines — that’s what they’re built for, it’s what they do best, and it’s what you would expect from a trade union.  I remember a year or so ago a small local town — Atherton, I believe — thought a good new revenue source would be to tax Realtor (r) commissions at the point of sale.  Dozens and dozens of Realtors showed up for the town hall meeting — practically more Realtors than the town had citizens!  These Realtors came from far and wide, and very few of them had anything to do with Atherton.  They came to show their extreme displeasure at this move, afraid that if it passed, the idea would spread like a cancer to neighboring towns.  Needless to say, the measure got voted down.

NAR is also great at getting out its message — very consistently — that it’s a great time to buy to sell to buy and sell to buy, sell, skip, and jump!

What exactly would a social media manager do at NAR?  Send out Twitters about NAR’s latest rosy forecast?  Alert everybody that Lawrence Yun is about to send another update?  There is simply too much of a disconnect between NAR’s stifling corporate culture and the social media world.  I imagine all blog posts would need to be cleared by a hundred-person NAR subcommittee.

I know they’re well-intentioned, and I give them credit for trying, but give it a rest, guys!

If somebody does get this job, I’ve got $50 that says they don’t last any longer than Mr. Luther did at move.com  Any takers?

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Are Digital Cameras And PDA’s Really The “Latest In Advanced Technology”? That’s What CAR Thinks!

From the “What decade are we in?” department, comes this choice gem of a promotional email from our good friends at the California Association of Realtors.  They’re running an Expo next week, and a promotional email just arrived in my inbox, from which I quote:

Don’t miss this opportunity to learn the latest advances in technology such as text messaging, picture messaging, camera phones, PDAs and many other technologies…

And in the next room, we’ll be talking about fax machines, rotary phones, and photocopiers!

The full promo:

	Take home MAX’S TOP TIPS A Technology Survival Guide for PDA-Smartphones and Digital Cameras Technology is evolving, and it is affecting our lives and our profession. Don’t miss this opportunity to learn the latest advances in technology such as text messaging, picture messaging, camera phones, PDAs and many other technologies that agents are using to maximize their marketing and communication. Sign up to attend the REALTOR.com® Workshop October 15
	You must register separately to attend the C.A.R. REALTOR® EXPO Oct. 14-16, 2008

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Let’s End The Housing Crisis Here And Now … A Modest Proposal For How To Spend The $700BN

Even us “glass half-full” types have to admit the news these days is bad.  Any day Congress passes a $700BN and has to tag on only another couple billion or so of Christmas ornaments to get it passed, well, on that day, you know things were urgent, and they had to act fast.  Wooden arrow manufacturers, Caribbean distillers, and certain other recipients of congressional largesse pork may be quite happy now, but hopefully the remaining $700BN will be spend actually trying to solve the problem.

And that’s where my modest proposal comes in.

Fundamentally, this crisis is about housing values, or more specifically about uncertainty around housing values.  Behind most of the bankrupties, the bailouts, the CDO-thing-a-majiggies … lies a portfolio of mortgage loans whose value is … 3 cents on the dollar? A dime?  A quarter?  47 cents?  Nobody knows, and therein lies the problems.

Our fearless leaders have proposed spending the $700BN largely on buying these “non-performing assets.”  By some financial wizardry, the exact same folks who could not determine the value of these assets in the private market, are about to get hired by Uncle Sam to determine these assets’ values on the taxpayer’s dime.

So here’s what we do instead:  Let’s spend that $700BN buying not the mortgages, but the underlying homes themselves.  Let’s say homes in the US have an average value of $200K.  [Pause for my west and east coast readers to chuckle.]  $700BN divided by $200K is … 3,500,000 (three million five hundred thousand.)

That’s right.  With $700BN we could buy a couple of million homes.  We’d start by buying, say, 75% of the inventory on the market right now.  That should restore confidence in the market pretty quickly.

Presto!  Problem solved.

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And Another One Bites The Dust…

Apparently at least a handful of government financial regulatory employees were doing something today other than figuring out how much money Wall Street needs to keep from further imploding…

The New York Times reports that JP Morgan Chase has taken over troubled lender Wamu.

What next?

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What’s Happening In This Market? A Liberal Dose Of Mixed Metaphors To Help Us Understand It

Movies.  Shoes.  Phases.  What do they have in common?  All have been recently used as metaphors describing the economy or predictions of where the economy is going.

On the day that the Fannie and Freddie s$#@ hit the fan, Sherry Chris of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate quoted Realogy CEO Alex Perriello, “I feel like I am in Imelda Marcos’ closet - the shoes just keep dropping.”  Indeed.

Fast forward a few days and we get the Bawld Guy, America’s foremost maxim-generating machine, reassures us that we ain’t all gonna die.  He’s seen this movie three times before, and the asteroid doesn’t hit earth.

Finally, Nikcolai Kolding, also of Better Homes and Gardens, brings out an interesting diagram explaining the phases of the real estate market:

["Sides", for the uninitiated, refers to each of the two "sides" of a transaction.]

The diagram suggests that transaction volume, not price, is the best leading indicator of a change in the market.  In a future article I’ll see how well our local data fit into this model.

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Attention All You Crazy Drivers In The Fair Oaks Neighborhood: Those Traffic Circles Are There To Slow You Down

Having spent much of my life in former British colonies, I am well versed in various British-isms:  marmite (yuck), lifts (not elevators), sprinkling my words with extraneous u’s … and the correct use of roundabouts — or “traffic circles” as they’re commonly known on this side of the Atlantic.  Sadly, many of the folks here in Silicon Valley seem to have missed that part of driver’s ed.

To reduce the tempatation of using the streets of Fair Oaks (in Menlo Park) as a convenient shortcut to avoid delays on Marsh Road and on Middlefield Road, the local neighborhood installed roundabouts traffic circles a while ago.  Most drivers slow down as they navigate around these obstacles, but some of the more aggressive drivers see them as a handy and challenging obstacle course, careening around them at full tilt, seemingly on two wheels.  Both the fast and the considerate drivers, however, still don’t seem to understand the most basic rule of traffic circles:  if you’re in the circle, you have the right of way.  If you’re not in the circle, you don’t have the right of way.

Simple, really — or it should be.  Alas, nearly every day brings about a near collision as a rule-following driver makes a left turn around a circle, while a non-rule-following driver comes merrily towards him, with no obvious intention of yielding.

People!  Slow down!  Yield the right of way to cars in the traffic circle.

‘Nuff said.

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Good News About Real Estate in the Mercury? Well Sort Of

Long-time readers know that I do my newspaper reading online via the New York Times. In a throwback to a quieter time, I do subscribe to the San Jose Mercury News on Sundays as we like to peruse the articles and share witty banter about the headlines over morning coffee. In an interesting twist, I also receive the paper on other random days of the week . . . but I digress.

When I picked up the paper on Labor Day (Second Sunday?), the headline “Home Sales Raising Hopes” bravely attempted to be seen over the front and center HURRICANE HITS GOP main headline. What’s this I thought, positive news about the housing market from the Merc? Really?

I have grown weary and wary of the Merc and its drumbeat of foreclosure of the week, gloom and doom, and reinforcing that real estate is local, and my market in Palo Alto varies just a bit from south San Jose. If you don’t believe me, visit Altos Research and compare the chart for median home price over the last couple of years in these two cities. The results may surprise you . . .

The Merc got my hopes up with an intro and a couple of quotes from brokers saying they were expecting an upturn in sales in the Fall after activity was so low in the summer, and there is usually an upturn in the fall. There is some back and forth, and the article pretty much shot down the “fall uptick” conventional wisdom. Again, Altos to the rescue showing inventory and sales actually DO pick up in Palo Alto fairly consistently every fall before slowing down over the holidays.

To see the article on its entirety, click here to visit the Mercury online. For charts and stats galore, visit the Market Reports page on my website, now in Single Family and Condo!

Thanks for reading . . .

Tags: 2008 real estate market, home prices, Local information, palo alto home prices, palo alto market, San Jose Mercury

Timing the Market, A Banker’s Viewpoint

Credit for this post really goes to 3 Oceans contributor Eric Trailer who sent me this content in a letter this week. My clients got it last week, and the blogoshpere can now benefit. We can assume that Eric has better things to do on Labor Day than blog. I’m guessing something involving his lovely wife and son . . .

To see current market data and price trends over the past year for local communities and confirm or refute Eric’s prognostications on the local market in Palo Alto and the surrounding communities,

CLICK HERE to see real-time market data, courtesy of our friends at Altos Research.

As you have likely been hearing, there continues to be more and more evidence that it will cost prospective home buyers more to purchase a home in select areas of the Bay Area as they allow time to go by.
Why? Let’s look at the basic reasons, then review an example:

1.        The median price across the board in Palo Alto and the surrounding communities has risen since the beginning of the year.

2.        On a national basis, the trough of the market was reached in April.

3.        The conforming loan limit will DECREASE over $100,000 in 2009 to $625,000.

4.        Rates have risen about .5% since the beginning of the year, despite the increase in the conforming loan limit to $729,750

5.        Loan qualifications are becoming more restrictive with each passing week.

6.        More restrictions on loans and a tighter supply of money forces rates to go up

7.        Because loans require more work to process them (requirements today are 4x what they were a year ago), rates will go up.

8.        Inflation is the number one concern of the Fed, and should be the number one concern for all of us.

Let’s say for a moment that you agree that rates are on the rise, but feel as though prices may come down on a $1mm property today; thus, you want to wait. Let’s further assume that you are right and the future price is $950,000, but rates have increased .5% at that future time. Using 20% down, waiting just cost you an ADDITIONAL $117 per month-over $1,400 per year.

But now let’s be more realistic given the appreciation rates of desirable areas of the Bay Area. If rates increase and the $1mm home appreciates to $1,050,000, you are looking at an ADDITIONAL $550 PER MONTH-OVER $6,000 PER YEAR!

What’s the take-away here?   Price matters much less than true cost… My motto has always been that it always pays off to buy sooner than later, provided your holding period is greater than four years. And to prove that I walk the walk, I am happy to share my personal situation written as an article titled, “How to Afford a Home in Palo Alto Without a Trust Fund.”

Kindest regards,

Eric

To call Eric on his walking the walk comment, and get a copy of his article, “How to Afford a Home in Palo Alto Without a Trust Fund.”, click on his pretty picture over there in the contributor column to send him an email.

Tags: 4---mortgage-mania, absolute mortgage bank, mortgage rates, Mortgages, palo alto home prices, Palo alto housing market, palo alto market, palo alto real estate market

900 University Ave, Palo Alto: Attention, Madam Secretary Rice: We Have The Perfect Home For You After January 20, 2008

Ms. Condoleezza Rice
Secretary of State

Kevin Boer, 3 Oceans Real Estate
Chris Iverson, Ventoux Real Estate

Dear Madam Secretary,

We understand based on recent news events (include Mr. Obama’s pre-emptive European victory lap), and on the harsh constitutional reality that your present employer will soon no longer be needing your services, that you may soon be looking for a new residence, perhaps near to your past employer Stanford University.

It seems, in fact, that Mr. Bush has already begun his own search, so there may be some urgency to this matter.

Allow us to suggest a residence suitable for a person of your experience and discerning taste: the Squire House at 900 University Ave in Palo Alto. This property is currently on the market, listed by the local Alain Pinel triumvirate Carol, Rosemary, and Nicole, for only $12.5M.

First of all, this home is a leisurely 20 minute walk down University Ave straight into the heart of the Stanford Campus:

Secondly, the facade of the home may well remind you of a similar grand mansion on the East Coast, one in which you have spent a considerable amount of time in the last 8 years:

(Image courtesy of 900UniversityAvenue.com)

Thirdly, the home is over 6000 square feet, and has a lot size of nearly one acre. This will provide ample room for all your entertainment, parking, and security needs.

Should you wish to view this property, have your people call our people, and we’ll make it happen.

Best regards,

Mssrs. Boer & Iverson

P.S. Some of your colleagues may be in a similar situation. We are happy to provide them with good references for real estate professionals in their home towns.

Mr. Paulson, for instance, may return to Manhattan to work for Goldman Sachs. May I recommend Mr. Noah Rosenblatt as the ideal discrete broker to assist him.

Should Mr. Gates return to his former employer, I recommend he contact Ms. Lani Anglin, who, though based in Austin, not College Station, would be a stellar pick.

If Mr. Gutierrez finds the siren song of Miami irresistible, I highly recommend Mr. Kevin Tomlinson.

Perhaps you could also relay to Senator McCain that, should he decide to retire, the right person to contact is Mr. James Wexler, one of the best real estate brokers in the Phoenix area. We understand this move might happen this year, or in 2012 or even 2016; Mr. Wexler is patient and will be awaiting his call.

Update:

Curtis Van Carter, who sells real estate in Napa Valley, claims he’s trying to nab another high-profile soon-to-be-unemployed individual, none other than “W” himself. Apparently, said individual, while in Napa Valley on a fund-raising expedition, took a little side trip to see a certain castle. Alas, it’s not even for sale, and spouse Laura found it cold and uninviting.

At the other end of the spectrum, Los Altos Realtor Joanne Fraser suggests Condi may have to settle for a $1.6M Los Altos home because Stanford profs only make $175K per year. I completely disagree. First, she’d be the Provost, not a mere professor, which means her salary would easily be $250K. Secondly, I’ve heard she may be getting help for the down payment. Finally, there are rumors of a book deal in the works!

Tags: Condi Rice, Palo Alto, Real estate, Secretary of State, Stanford

A Housing Rebound? - Looking for the bounce

CNN Money is a favorite consumer source for news and sensationalism about issues affecting us financially. A friend uses it as his homepage, and sent me this article on indications that the housing market is pulling out of its downward spiral. Judging by the commentary on the Yahoo news service that picked it up, most people think it is another self-serving article written by real estate agents who want to further dupe consumers into buying homes and further leveraging them selves with unnecessary debt. There, I said it, so you can save your comments.

Here in Sillycon Valley, we are continuing to see variations on the Tale of Two Cities theme, with markets like Palo Alto and Menlo Park holding up strongly (click the links to see current market data), while prices in parts of Sunnyvale and San Jose have fallen off a cliff this year. We won’t mention Sacramento, because it’s not nice to kick ‘em when they’re down.

So, the key leading indicators for monitoring the health of your local housing market are:

1. Is the housing stock shrinking?
2. Are home prices falling at a slower pace?
3. Is it cheaper to rent than own?
4. Are houses becoming more affordable (relative to local incomes)?

Locally, we are still kind of bumping along. The current housing stock in Palo Alto is up slightly, but that isn’t unusually during the late Summer. If the trend continues through Fall, it may signal a trend.

Home prices have been stable here, so that is tough to measure, though the multiple-offer / overbid madness is definitely a rarity these days.

Depending on how you measure it, it’s still cheaper to rent than own, but tell that to my clients who were tossed into the housing market when the rental property was sold and they received a 60 day notice from the new owner.

Houses here are still unaffordable, but take a look at the chart at the bottom of the page and compare San Jose and San Francisco. It may be a good time to get into San Jose, especially if you understand foreclosures and short sales. If not, contact 3Oceans contributor Bart Marchioni, aka Mr. Short Sale.

Remember, real estate is local, and be careful what you read on the internet.

Thanks for reading . . .

Tags: 2008 real estate market, housing market turnaround, mortgage crisis, mortgage mania, Palo alto housing market

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