SubscribeMortgage Mania 19 – The Jumbo Strikes Back
September 9, 2008
Amid all the celebration and hullabaloo associated with the recent drop in conforming interest rates as a result of the Treasury Department taking over management of GSE’s Fannie May and Freddie Mac, there has been scant analysis of the elephant in the room, namely Jumbo (aka non-conforming) loans that are part and parcel of home purchasing here in Silicon Valley.
The GSEs hold or have securitized nearly half — roughly $5 trillion — of all mortgages in the U.S., and in the current environment with private lender constraints, they account for the vast majority of all new mortgages in California.
This bailout (oops, did I say bailout?) removes much of the risk to lenders of writing mortgages for under $729,000 locally, decreasing to $649,000 next year, because they can resell these loans to the government backed and now managed GSE’s.
But what about loans over $729,000? Well, Wall Street and the secondary market will still be willing to buy those that are considered low risk (excellent credit score, low loan-to-value ratio, verifiable income), but they will demand a risk premium for those loans, meaning that rates are likely to go up, taking us back to the bifurcated market for rates that we have seen in previous years.
On his way to the SILVAR Golf Tournament yesterday, co-contributor and local mortgage banking hotshot Eric Trailer of Absolute Mortgage Bank in Palo Alto gave this quick analysis of where he sees rates going (paraphrased here):
If you know you can sell off a loan to a government backed agency, you have very low risk, so you demand a low interest rate. However, as risk increases you will demand a greater “risk premium” to hedge against not being able to sell that loan, or the buyer defaulting on that loan. Right now we are seeing investors who are willing to lend the 20% to take a buyer from a 20% down, 80% loan to a 100% loan, but at 15% with 5 or 6 points. That’s expensive money, which is why it is dubbed “hard money”, but it offsets the risk to the lender.
Eric thinks we could see Jumbo rates heading to the 8 – 9% region, which is still lower than in the 80’s, but the difference between a 6% loan and a 9% loan on $1,000,000 is $2500 a month just in interest.
Let’s do some math. If you have an 80% mortgage on a median priced home in Palo Alto ($1,921,214, source Altos Research). That is a mortgage of $1,536,971, and payments increasing from $7685 @ 6% to $11,527 @ 9%. That’s a lot of $4.25 a gallon gas!
So, if you are planning on buying a new home and you need to borrow more than $729,000 you may want to get out there looking sooner rather than later.
To learn more about the takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and what it means to your home purchase, check out a new video featuring California Association of Realtors Executive Vice President Joel Singer at http://www.car.org/newsstand/video-js-gse. In “Fannie and Freddie: Why They Matter to You,” Joel explains the often confusing but critical role Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play in the housing market in clear and concise terms.
Thanks for reading . . .
Mortgage Mania 18 – Can You Say Taxpayer Bailout?
September 9, 2008
What The Government Seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Means To You
Unless you have been hiding under a rock the past couple of days, you couldn’t miss the announcement that the U.S. Department of the Treasury has placed government backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into a conservatorship. Under the terms of the deal, the federal government is authorized to take up to an 80 percent stake in the companies, and, as part of its duties under the conservatorship, will review both Fannie’s and Freddie’s financial condition quarterly, as well as inject money into the operations as needed.
Tommy Fehrenbach of Stern Mortgage in Palo Alto had this to say about the Treasury Department’s move.
“To promote market stability, the companies will be allowed to buy more mortgages through the end of 2009. However, starting in 2010 the number of mortgages they own will gradually be reduced at a rate of 10% per year, eventually stabilizing at about $250 billion.”
As part of this weekend’s action, both CEOs were relieved of their duties and Herbert Allison, former Merrill Lynch vice chairman, and David Moffett, former U.S. Bancorp CFO, were selected to lead Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively.
The markets cheered the move with the NYSE and NASDAQ rallying on the news, and mortgages rates for conforming loans (under $650,000 in 2009) fell almost half a point.
All great news, mortgage rates fall, and the housing slump is averted, right? Not so fast there partner . . .
In a statement released today by the California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.), concern over the long-term impact of the move was expressed with the following cautionary forecast:
“Without an institutionalized mortgage-backed securities market, mortgage capital eventually will be less predictable and more expensive, and adjustable-rate mortgages could become the standard loan for home buyers, as could higher down payment requirements. The 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage as we know it will no longer be readily available for most home buyers and may effectively disappear. The result could be a dramatic decline in homeownership rates in California and across the nation.”
C.A.R. is concerned that the Treasury, and Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s new CEOs, will overreact and change the mission and role of the GSEs. Wall Street and investors are understandably reluctant to buy mortgage backed securities (MBS) that are not either originated from or guaranteed by Fannie or Freddie.”
I added the underlining for emphasis because what nobody is talking about is JUMBO loans. Those mortgages above $729,000 (over $650,000 in 2009) that are part and parcel of almost ALL sales of single family homes here in Silicon Valley (the median home price in Palo Alto this week is: $1,921,214, courtesy of Altos Research).
In summary, while this is a good move for conforming loans, and the majority of potential homebuyers across the country, high-cost areas like Silicon Valley may once again be left out in the cold.
Stay tuned for our next edition of Mortgage Mania – The Jumbo Strikes Back
Thanks for reading . . .
The real reason Realtor.com is critical of Zillow…
November 8, 2006
With New Orleans already alive with NardiGras, I’m expecting some more choice outtakes of Realtor.com’s Alan Dalton criticizing Zillow to come out soon.
Why is he so against Zillow? Is it, in fact, out of some sort of principled commitment to the way online real estate should be conducted?
I think it has more to do with what Lloyd Frink of Zillow says in this clip from a recent CAR convention.
Quite simply, Realtor.com is running scared. In 6 short months, Zillow has made rapid gains and is now in contention to become the leading real estate destination on the Web, along with all the ad revenue that implies.
Z-piphany
October 31, 2006
You know why many Realtors feel so threatened by Zillow? Because at first glance, it looks like yet another attempt to cut us out of the business. In fact, second and third glances could lead you to the same conclusion:
- Second glance: Zillow’s founders cut their teeth at Expedia.com, one of several sites that let to the demise of the travel agent business.
- Third glance: Zillow initially considered pursuing that business model…until they figured out, and apparently pretty quickly, that the real estate business ain’t the travel agent business, and they could make far more money by becoming an advertising-driven media company instead.
Listen to Lloyd Frink, Zillow President, at a recent convention of the California Association of Realtors. [Note: For some reason during much of Lloyd's presentation, the camera showed a still of him instead of a live shot.]
Money quote for paranoid Realtors:
At Zillow, we quickly realized that you can’t replace Realtors with people over the phone…a much better business model for us is to NOT be part of the transaction, but to build something that is very, very compelling to consumers, and if we get enough of them to come to our web site, then we can attract people like you to come and advertise.
Zillow maintains composure
October 31, 2006
After Alan Dalton’s Hugo-Chavez-esque attack, Zillow’s Lloyd Frink responded in a surprisingly low-key fashion, choosing substance over style. I’m not sure I would have been able to resist shooting back. No, wait a minute — I would have shot back, no question.
Unsolicited advice to Lloyd:
Never use the words “spreadsheet” and “valuation” with a Realtor audience. Coming from a consulting background, I made the same mistake when I got into the business. Instead of “valuation”, say “estimate.” Instead of “spreadsheet” — well, just don’t use that word. Period. “Spreadsheet” connotes too mathematical an approach to estimating the value of something as emotionally charged as a home. Never mind that a common quick-and-dirty approach to a first cut of home valuation used by Realtors is a simple price-per-sq-ft analysis — a great task for a spreadsheet if there ever was one.
Different management, same tune
October 30, 2006
Responding to Alan Dalton’s Zillow-skewering at the recent convention of the California Association of Realtors, Brad Inman of Inman News had this to say:
Money quote to Realtor audience: “Don’t let anyone demean your value by suggesting that you should be threatened by new sources of information.”
We’ve seen the fireworks; now let’s see the substance…
October 30, 2006
Lest I give the impression that Alan Dalton is all bombast and no substance, consider the following clips, also from his recent address to the home crowd at the California Association of Realtors.
Dalton gets the Internet in a way that many senior real estate executives don’t. He understands that the transparency promoted by the Internet is a good thing.
The problem is, his hands are tied. Without the suffocating restrictions on the display of online data recommended by the National Association of Realtors, and implemented by many MLS’s, I have no doubt that Realtor.com would have a much richer treasure trove of data with which to tempt the public — though it would probably still have a less-than-mediocre interface. Dalton is a capable executive, of that I have no doubt. It’s difficult for him to compete against the sites that aren’t beholden to NAR — like Zillow — so he cloaks his frustration by calling on red herring higher principles.
Classic. He challenges Zillow to do something, and then promises to implement it as well on Realtor.com. That “something”? Displaying “what homes have sold for” instead of “what homes are worth.”
The problem? Many MLS’s, including our own in Silicon Valley, REIL, prohibit the display of sold listings. Realtor.com has had access to sold data for eons but, bound by NAR’s paranoid “keep the data under lock and key” restrictions, it hasn’t been able to…until recently…and then only by disingenuous subterfuge.
Quick! Somebody get this guy some Ritalin!
October 30, 2006
I finally had a chance to view the video of the Realtor.com (Alan Dalton) vs. Zillow (Lloyd Frink) confrontation a few weeks ago, and though Dalton is still a few credits short of graduating from the Hugo Chavez School of Rhetoric, it was clear he hadn’t taken his Ritalin that day.
You can see the whole thing for yourself here (Quicktime version) or here (Windows Media version) [CAR membership possibly required], or read my non-chronological review — starting in this post and continuing for several days — which is equal parts commentary, unsolicited advice for Alan Dalton and Lloyd Frink, and entertainment.
After a fairly lengthy talk by Joel Singer, Executive Vice President of the California Association of Realtors (CAR), Lloyd Frink gave a pretty low-key introduction to Zillow.
Then came Dalton’s turn at the podium, and he has, shall we say, a different personality. He started by pandering to his California audience…
…and then came out swinging at Zillow in general and Lloyd Frink in particular. [Several clips spliced together]
Electronic transactions and peace in the Middle East
October 29, 2006
At the recent convention of the California Association of Realtors, Brad Inman, President and CEO of Inman News Features, spoke about how technology has been changing the business of real estate. Inman’s a pretty sharp character, and he “gets” technology in real estate in a way that many industry leaders don’t.
Here’s what he had to say about electronic transactions:
Uh, Brad…next time you’re thinking of buying or selling a home, let me know…we’ll do all the paperwork electronically, and the first and only time you’ll have to put a pen to paper is when you sign the closing documents at the title company. Alas, California law still requires mortgage documents to be signed the old fashioned way.
Realtor.com vs. Zillow dustup video finally released
October 27, 2006
Thanks to RIS Media for pointing this out…
A video of the fabled dustup between Zillow’s Lloyd Frink and Realtor.com’s Alan Dalton is finally online at the web site of the California Association of Realtors.
I’m at a cafe with really slow Internet access right now, so I’m having a hard time viewing it. Is somebody going to upload this to Youtube?
Update: It’s a 100MB+ file, and presumably copyrighted, so I’ll take a pass on uploading it to you Tube. Why CAR hasn’t done so is completely beyond me.
