President Bush signed into law today a new measure giving tax breaks to homeowners who have mortgage debt forgiven. Under preexisting law, the debt forgiven by a lender, such as for short sales and refinances, was generally taxable to the borrower as debt discharge income. With the passage of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, a taxpayer does not have to pay federal income tax on debt forgiven for a loan secured by a qualified principal residence.

This tax break applies to debts discharged from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009. Qualified principal residence indebtedness is debt incurred in acquiring, constructing, or substantially improving the residence (up to $2 million for refinances).

For purposes of calculating capital gains, any debts discharged excluded from income under the new law must be subtracted from the basis of the taxpayer’s principal residence (but not below zero). However, taxpayers may generally exclude from capital gains income up to $250,000 (or $500,000 for married couples filing jointly) for properties owned and used as their principal residence for at least two of the last five years.

This is great news for homeowners who have gone through either a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure. Prior to this act, it was a double-whammy — not only did the homeowner not have enough equity to sell their home and took a big hit on their credit score, but they were taxed on the differential between what they owed on the house and what it sold for (because it was treated as income).  Now they can at least know that Uncle Sam will not come after them to pay taxes on that differential.

For a copy of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007, go to http://www.govtrack.us/congress/bill.xpd?bill=h110-3648.

Also, keep an eye out for my upcoming article that will explain “What is a short sale?”, in the coming days.

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The Zillovians have been busy lately…first, singing a Zillow-fied Christmas carol…then, more substantively, releasing their new Smart Search technology, which, if I understand correctly, presents different information intelligently, based on where and at what zoom level you’re searching.

At the San Mateo county level, for instance, I get this:

At the city level, this is what I get for Menlo Park:

If I want more info on Menlo Park, I learn that local residents

• are well-educated
• are often multi-lingual
• are likely immigrants
• spend more money on housing compared to others
• ride their bikes to work

With the exception of the latter, it seems spot on.

Nice new features, but nothing earth-shattering.

What I’d really like to see from Zillow is something I’ve talked about before: addressing the advertising needs of buy-side Realtors. The Sellsius twins have weighed in on this issue as well.

Here’s what I have in mind: The advertising emphasis in real estate has always been on the listing side. If a home is for sale, that represents more than just an upcoming commission check for the listing agent: done correctly, it’s also marketing collateral. It’s an excuse to send out more branding postcards, to take out an ad in the paper, to hold open houses, to put out a sign…all things designed more to enhance the branding of the agent than to necessarily sell the home in question.

If the fact that I am selling a home or I just finished listing and selling my client’s home is good marketing collateral, why not make something of I just helped my clients buy a home?

We do a bit of this in the industry already: witness the occasional “represented buyer” newspaper ad — which is often just space filler around the more prominent “just sold” ads.

Zillow has a perfect opportunity here. While most of the online real estate conversation is about homes currently on the market, Zillow’s repository of all homes is perfect for telling a broader story, one which includes the buyer’s agent.

Hey Zillow — in your next product release, make it possible for the buy-side agent to tout their recent transactions too!

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Marian Bennett* is a Realtor specializing in the San Mateo Coast, especially Half Moon Bay.  Inspired by her recent Christmas wish list, here is what we at 3 Oceans would love for Christmas.

Yeah, yeah, world peace, elimination of poverty, global warming, hunger, and bad acne.  But here’s what we really want.

10. An iPhone.

9. An MLS that supports Safari — and thus the iPhone.

8. Widespread adoption of electronic transactions in real estate.  I mean, come on, let’s stop killing all those damn trees!

7. Google stock continuing its steady northward march, preferably above $1000.  That will make homes in Mountain View cost just 700 to 800 Google stock, a pittance for our Googler friends.

6. The media getting a clue about real estate.  Let’s start talking about city and neighborhood trends.  Let’s acknowledge that not every home in America is in foreclosure.  Let’s admit that there are some cities where the housing market remains buoyant.

5. More housing inventory for Palo Alto.

4. Ben Bernanke somehow figuring out how to keep interest rates low without having inflation spiral out of control.

3. Buyers to come out of their caves and actually start buying homes…before May 15, which Kris Berg has declared “American Home Buying Day.”

2. Sellers to stop acting like lemmings.  (See #5.)

1. An “increase your business by 10X” plugin for Wordpress.

What do you want for Christmas?

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With all of the media coverage about the implosion of the real estate market and the rising rate of foreclosures, every time I turn around someone is asking me about the health of the local real estate market in and around Palo Alto. They seem to expect me to echo what they are seeing on TV and reading in the newspaper. Nothing could be further from the truth, especially in Palo Alto, which is still enjoying a Seller’s Market with prices maintaining their stratospheric levels as hordes of well-qualified buyers patrol the city in hopes of seeing something new to look at. Last week there were a whopping three (that’s 3) new homes coming on the market in Palo Alto.

When hearing this unexpected good news on the health of the largest investment and asset that most non-Google employees have, a few folks have asked me if I think this market will continue (I do - subject of another posting), and that they are considering selling their homes in the Spring.

Spring, like April 2008? I ask

Yes.

Why then?

Well, that is when all the houses seem to come on the market, so that must be the best time to sell . . .

I have gotten better at controlling my reaction (giggling is a great way to start off on the wrong foot). But I then usually explain things in economic terms of Supply and Demand.

If you are a lemming seller and put your home on the market when everyone else does, how do you make it stand out from the competition? You can spend more on preparation (fresh remodel, landscaping, staging, etc.), more on marketing (more advertising, open houses, etc), or you can price it below the competition, or a combination of all three.

These approaches all result in less of a return for the homeowner at the end of the day, much like the price of oil usually drops in May because demand for heating oil has dropped off and the summer driving season hasn’t started yet. Alternatively, when oil is scarce like during a particularly cold winter, or if oil producers reduce production, prices go up.

What if you could make a house scarce? Would that increase the relative interest level and selling price?

Generally, we see the number of homes in Palo Alto for sale increase in mid-February and be high until around Memorial Day, then there is another seasonal increase after Labor Day until late October. Seasonal lows in inventory run from mid-November to mid-February, and then there is another drought in late Summer. Selling prices tend to run inverse of these seasonal inventory fluctuations, as greater scarcity creates greater perceived value for Buyers.

In Summary, an easy way to get your property to stand out is to put it on the market during one of the low inventory times. Serious buyers are always looking, and who would you rather have trooping through your home, serious, qualified Buyers, or people who like to look at houses on a pleasant weekend afternoon?

If you are considering selling, don’t be a lemming and wait until Spring, contact your real estate professional and have him or her show you market data and discuss how to get your home on the market during one of the “off-times”.

Skeptical? Don’t believe me? You can see objective market data for your area, courtesy of Altos Research here, or sign up for a customized report on the market in your area here.

Thanks for reading.

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Lost in the ongoing discussion about Redfin’s recent appearance on the Today Show is the blatant Redfin geek-baiting of their “Redfin Scientist” marketing push.

Many Realtors have looked at this document with it’s “No, duh!” recommendations (stay engaged, don’t overprice your property, do advertise it on the web) and thought, “I don’t need any ’scientist’ or ‘research paper’ to tell me that!  It’s just obvious!!!”

It may be obvious or it may not be obvious, but here’s the stroke of genius on Redfin’s part:  one of their core target demographics — Gen  X and Y geeks living in high-priced markets — tend to not take our assertions as fact until they see the underlying data-driven proof.

As a Gen X geek myself, I completely relate.  When the old-timers in the business say, “This doesn’t feel like a normal Fall market”, I don’t take it on faith.  I download a data set from the MLS, crunch some numbers, and come to my own conclusion.  Far more often than not, the old-timers’ intuition is spot on…but I’m not comfortable with their assertions until I see them backed up with data.

If I had a nickel for every time a Realtor told a prospective client at a listing appointment “Don’t overprice your home” but provided no hard data to back up that assertion, I’d have retired a long time ago.  Many folks are comfortable with assertions, but “geeks” (which I define as data-driven technology lovers) for the most part want the numbers.

Redfin recognizes this and gives it to them.

Traditional real estate advertising targets a geographic niche, typically a town or neighborhood.  One of Redfin’s primary niches — perhaps their largest one — is a demographic niche:  the geek market, or, more precisely, geeks in high-priced markets.  And guess what?  Seattle and the Bay Area, their two primary markets are not only expensive but are also full of geeks!  I have no inside information about their sales numbers, but I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if 25% of their Seattle business consists of Google and Microsoft employees.

The lesson in all this?  Know thy customer.  If you’re Redfin and your customer is a geek, give him the numbers.  State the obvious, state the not-so-obvious…but back it up with numbers.  Future studies I’d like to see coming out of Redfin’s scientists (or heck, maybe I’ll do them myself) include:

• Staging your home is a positive ROI investment.  Really?  Show me the numbers.  I suspect it’s true, but I’d love to see a study that compares the sales price of, say, $800K homes with and without staging.  Do the homeowners that invest $5,000 in staging really sell their home for at least $5000 more than the ones who don’t?
• Taking more and better pictures of your home makes your home sell quicker and for more money.  I’ve seen the numbers that prove a listing with more and better pictures gets a lot more online views, but do those views translate into more open house visitors and eventually into a higher price?
• Selling your home with a full-service broker will net you more than going with a discount broker.  Again, a common assertion.  Show me the data!  If, for instance, the average full-service commission in an area is 5.5% and the average discount commission in an area is 3.5%, are full-service brokers typically able to get a 2% or greater premium on the sales price?

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No one can doubt Redfin’s Glenn Kelman is a master of publicity; witness his latest publicity coup: getting on the Today Show to talk real estate with Meredith Vieira. The re.net was abuzz, from Joel Burslem’s neutral coverage to the Bloodhound’s  semi-excoriating review to a withering ActiveRain critique on the “obviousness” of what Kelman said.

The joke, I would say, is on us. To anybody who’s been in the business for any length of time, Kelman’s advice — don’t overprice the home, do advertise on Craigslist — is painfully second nature.

But here’s the point: Kelman is a master genius at generating publicity around knowledge that we take for granted. So it’s obvious to you as a professional Realtor that overpricing a home is the kiss of death? But you’ve never created any marketing buzz around that! You instinctively know to push for a price of $749,000 rather than $751,000? Glenn Kelman just beat you at getting the phone to ring by spinning that message in the right way!

A further irony: this is really nothing more than a repetition of the same mistake we’ve made for decades in this business: assuming that our intellectual assets have greatest value when we hide them from the public and use it as bait to get them to call.  For many years, we hoarded MLS information in book form and made the public come to us to get it.  When the Internet came along, we figured we could do the same thing.  Oops!  Companies like HomeGain figured out a way to use online MLS information to get their phones to ring, and forwarded the leads to us…for a fee.

Then we thought, “Ok, we’ll let the public have information about active listings, but as soon as a listing sells, we’ll hide it again.  Hee hee…this will force people to call us for that kind of information!”  Oops!  This now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t mentality opened up an opportunity for some very smart and deep-pocketed folks from Seattle to start a web site which, among other things, enabled the public to find out what homes sold for.  Zillow realized what we didn’t:  there is great marketing value in letting the world know what you know, rather than trying to hide it.  (See this article I wrote about a year ago on the gold buried in our MLS’s.)

Come on folks, when are we going to learn our lesson?   In the Internet age, you don’t win clients by giving only a sneak preview of your knowledge and data and then crossing your fingers that they will come to you in pursuit of the rest of it.  The game now is transparency — I know, an overused term perhaps, but true nonetheless.  You develop a followership by demonstrating your value, and you do that partly by showing what you know.

What “obvious” thing do you know that may have marketing value for your business?

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I know, confusing headline.  But that’s what you get when you combine a show with Today in the title, and an event that’s happening one day in the future.

I’ve been sworn to secrecy by Redfin’s PR maven Cynthia Pang until 9:01pm PST tonight (under pain of death, I’m told — though Redfin’s own Matt Goyer apparently broke the embargo early.)  It will, of course, be a live event, so we’ll see how Glenn Kelman holds up under the klieg lights.  (Fortunately for him, Kris Berg is not, as far as I know, conducting the interview.)

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The San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Bay Area is the number 3 “contributor and reader of blogs” nationwide, with fully “13% of adults going on the Web to read or contribute to a blog in the past 30 days.”

Ahead of the Bay Area is Austin, at 15% (many of whom undoubtedly read Lani Anglin’ and Benn Rosales blog) and Portland at 14% (they’re probably reading Joel Burslem’s.)

My theory is that this election cycle is helping to legitimize blogging in the public’s mind, as most of the candidates maintain blogs, and many of the most influential political sites today are blogs.

Update:

The original San Francisco Chronicle article cites Nielsen as the source of this data.  Robert Luna of Diverse Solutions, however, found the original at Scarborough Research.  You can download it here.

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Ben And The Boys (aka the FOMC) cut short-term interests rates by .25% earlier today in an attempt to:

1) Soften the mortgage industry landing from a smoking hole in the ground, to more of a smoldering skid mark. Don’t tell Washington Mutual who announced 3000 employees were getting pink slips in their stockings, and the bank is setting aside up to $1.6 Billion for losses in the 4th quarter.

2) Generate some consumer confidence this Holiday Shopping Season, since 2/3 of our economy is driven by consumer spending. Uncle Sam wants you to buy a Ford and / or Chevy.

3) Address concerns that “information suggests that economic growth is slowing,”

4) Give me somethnig to rant about (Thanks, guys!)

Interestingly, Wall Street, which has been on the rise over the last two weeks, had apparently priced in a bigger cut, so it responded by pummeling the Dow, lwhich lost 294 points on the day. Ouch! Maybe some retail therapy is in order . . .

Mortgage rates weren’t significantly affected by the rate cut. The Fed Funds rate is a short-term rate, and mortgage rates are long term. Mortgage rates are still at two-year lows, and it’s a Neutral or Buyer’s Market everywhere but Palo Alto.

Apparently, Palo Altans stayed awake in Econ 101 during the lecture on how relative Supply and Demand affects Prices. Although Demand in Palo Alto has dropped in recent months, Supply has dropped equally or more, maintaining or increasing Prices. Adam Smith would be proud.

Bueller, Bueller . . .

For an actual news article on today’s rate cut by an actual journalist, as opposed to a caffeineated Realtor, click here.

 Thanks for reading.

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The San Jose Mercury News continued its random delivery pattern at my house today, so I actually read a newspaper this morning with breakfast in a very Ward Cleaver moment. (Consistent readers will remember that I read the NY Times online).

 An article in the “biz+tech” section caught my eye: Recession Not Expected - But Forecasters’ ‘08 Outlook for State’s Economy is Grim. As I discussed in my special Halloween Edition Mortgage Mania Part 13, there is growing evidence that we will see a recession nationally in 2008 and 2009, and I gave some thoughts on how that would affect the local real estate market here in Silicon Valley. Economist Chris Thornberg of Beacon Economics was the source of the gloom and doom information, and you can see his presentation here.

According to the Merc, the fine folks at the Anderson School of Business at UCLA have gone out on a limb with “this half-hearted prediction: No recession in 2008.” The Anderson forecasters comment that they give their bold prediction “nervously” and that “real estate weakness will create a sluggish economy, but will not be enough to tip the state into a recession”.

In contrast, real estate in Palo Alto and the surrounding communities of Los Altos, Menlo Park and Mountain View is continuing to hum along, although at a noticeably slower pace than the boom years of 2004 and 2005. In general, homes are taking a bit longer to sell, but prices are holding steady, and we are still seeing crazy multiple offers on certain homes.

I think economist Thornberg put it best when he made an analogy with the recent earthquake in San Jose., stating that Silicon Valley will be shaken but not flattened by the coming economic upheaval.

Thanks for reading.

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